FW
In the sprawling fields of West Texas and the ginning factories of Gujarat, tremors of geopolitical unrest are being felt in cotton. Once regarded as a stable global commodity, cotton now sits at the crossroads of trade wars, diplomatic recalibrations, and sustainability imperatives.
As per the International Cotton Advisory Committee’s (ICAC) latest Cotton Market Reports (June 2024 and May 2025 editions), the 2024-25 global cotton season is expected to yield approximately 25.8 million tonnes of lint, marginally higher than the anticipated consumption of 25.5 million tonnes. But behind this veneer of balance lies a volatile reality—one shaped less by yields and more by fractured trade ties and supply chain uncertainty.
A trade war that won’t end
At the heart of this upheaval lies the prolonged trade war between the US and China. The two largest economies—and most important players in the cotton value chain—remain locked in a dispute that shows no signs of resolution.
“These tariffs not only increased costs but also disrupted global cotton supply chains, forcing a reevaluation of sourcing strategies,” the Cotton Review May 2024 bluntly states. Although the Phase One Agreement of January 2020 offered a temporary truce, its expiration in late 2021 reopened trade wounds. As of the 2024-25 season, China’s tariffs on US cotton remain steep, 26 per cent for in-quota and 65 per cent for out-of-quota imports. On the other side, the US has imposed tariffs ranging from 7.5 to 25 per cent on Chinese textiles and apparel.
China sourcing beyond the US
China, which remains the world’s largest cotton consumer at an estimated 8.3 million tonnes this season, is no longer placing its cotton eggs in the US basket. In 2017, 53 per cent of China’s cotton imports came from the US. By 2019, this figure had dropped to 22 per cent, and the downward trend continues. Brazil and Australia have emerged as primary alternatives, with Brazil nearly matching US supply volumes to China in 2023. This realignment isn’t just about avoiding tariffs, it’s about reengineering supply chains for long-term resilience.
US cotton finds new homes
While China may be cooling on US cotton, other countries are actively warming up. The geopolitical reshuffling has opened new avenues for American exports, particularly in South Asia and Southeast Asia.
Table: US cotton lint exports by partners and tariff impacts (2024-25)
|
Export partners |
Percentage of total US cotton lint exports (2024/25) |
Previous Rate |
Any retaliatory rate announced on US |
Updated rate by US |
Timeline |
|
China |
10% |
34% |
125% |
145% |
no timeline set |
|
Pakistan |
23% |
29% |
None |
10% |
29% paused until July 25 |
|
Turkey |
8% |
10% |
None |
10% |
no timeline set |
|
Vietnam |
17% |
46% |
None |
10% |
46% paused until July 25 |
|
Bangladesh |
5% |
37% |
None |
10% |
37% paused until July 25 |
|
India |
5% |
26% |
None |
10% |
26% paused until July 25 |
The trade tensions have led to the reshaping of global supply chain. The US, in turn, has diversified its import sources for textiles and apparel, leading to increased reliance on countries like Vietnam, Bangladesh, Turkey, Pakistan, Mexico, and India. These countries have seen substantial annual growth rates in their export values to the US between 2017 and 2021, with Vietnam at 6 per cent, and both Bangladesh and Turkey at 5 per cent.
Several countries are actively negotiating or increasing their imports of US cotton to mitigate tariff effects and reduce trade imbalances:
Bangladesh: Estimated to become the world's largest importer in 2024-25, Bangladesh is negotiating duty-free access for US cotton and finalizing a dedicated bonded warehouse facility for US cotton imports.
Egypt: Expanding its domestic consumption capacity with significant investments, Egypt's imports are revised upward.
Indonesia: Considering increasing US cotton lint imports and a tax cut for US goods, rather than retaliating against tariffs.
India: Has already consumed about five times more cotton in the first six months of the 2024-25 season compared to the previous year and is negotiating to potentially increase US cotton lint imports.
Pakistan: Has increased US cotton imports in 2024-25 and is reportedly negotiating to further increase cotton and soybean imports.
Vietnam: Likely to cut tariffs and import more US cotton.
Table: World cotton lint balance sheet (2024-25 est.)
|
Category |
Value ('000 metric tonnes) |
|
Production |
25829 |
|
Beginning Stocks |
17132 |
|
Imports |
9450 |
|
Consumption |
25527 |
|
Exports |
9450 |
Cotton faces other foes
While geopolitics dominate headlines, structural challenges gnaw at the fabric of the cotton industry. Cotton continues to lose ground to man-made fibers (MMFs), which are cheaper and more predictable. Add to this a rising wave of regulatory requirements, including traceability mandates in Europe and the US, and the value chain is under growing pressure. “Considering the complexity of the cotton value chain, the implementation of all these policy changes will be difficult and likely would add costs and audit fatigue to the value chain,” warns the ICAC.
Meanwhile, climate concerns are clouding the outlook. Drought in US cotton heartlands like Texas threatens exportable supplies, and stagnant global GDP growth raises questions about long-term demand
A fragile fabric in a fractured world
Cotton, once a symbol of stable, predictable trade is now stitched into a chaotic geopolitical tapestry. From Beijing to Dhaka, Cairo to Washington, the decisions of diplomats and trade negotiators are increasingly shaping the fate of farmers, millers, and apparel exporters. But the global cotton industry has shown a remarkable ability to adapt. Whether through new alliances, import diversification, or domestic capacity building, stakeholders across continents are reshaping their futures. The fiber may be soft, but the strategies are getting tougher.
Giriraj Singh, Union Minister of Textiles has officially launched the book, ‘Carbon Footprint Assessment in the Indian Handloom Sector: Methods and Case Studies.’
This landmark document has been jointly published by the Office of Development Commissioner for Handlooms, Ministry of Textiles, and the Department of Textiles & Fibre Engineering, IIT Delhi. Its publication highlights the Indian government's commitment to environmentally conscious handloom production and sustainable development. The book provides practical methods for measuring and reducing the carbon footprint of the handloom industry, which is a key socio-economic sector and a symbol of India's cultural heritage.
A vital part of rural and semi-rural livelihoods, the handloom sector employs over 3.5 million people. Of this, over 2.5 million are female weavers and allied workers, making it an important driver of women's economic empowerment. Known for being less capital-intensive and using minimal power, the sector is inherently eco-friendly. It also offers the flexibility of small-batch production and is adaptable to market trends, which gives it a competitive edge in both domestic and international markets. The book focuses on this unique advantage, highlighting the Indian handloom sector's crucial role in sustainable fashion and mindful consumption.
The book provides simple, step-by-step instructions for measuring carbon footprints. It includes real-world case studies from across India on a variety of products, such as cotton bedsheets, floor mats, and iconic handloom items like Ikat and Banarasi sarees. It also features low-cost data collection and emission measurement methods tailored specifically for the handloom industry to promote eco-friendly production.
The research for the book involved extensive collaboration with experts from institutions like the Indian Institute of Handloom Technology and Weavers Service Centers, as well as grassroots weaver groups and government agencies. The book adapts global climate reporting standards to fit India's unique operational context, enabling the sector to achieve sustainable growth. The Ministry is encouraging all stakeholders, including the public, to explore and use the report's findings, which mark a significant step toward a more sustainable Indian textile industry.
The Advertising Standards Authority (ASA) in the UK has banned two advertisements from fashion retailer Zara, ruling that these images featured models who appeared ‘unhealthily thin.’ According to the BBC, the watchdog deemed the ads ‘irresponsible’ and ordered that they not be used again in their current form. This decision adds to the growing debate over body image in advertising and the use of excessively thin models.
In its ruling, the ASA pointed to specific details in the ads. In one image, the regulator found, shadows and a slicked-back hairstyle made the model look ‘gaunt.’ In the other, a model's pose and a low-cut shirt highlighted her ‘protruding’ collarbones. The ASA has now instructed Zara to ensure all future images are “prepared responsibly.”
In response, Zara removed the controversial photos from its app and website. The retailer stated, both models had medical certificates confirming their good health at the time of the shoot. However, the ASA concluded, these images still conveyed an unhealthy body image message, regardless of the models' actual health.
Zara told ASA, it had only made minor edits to the photos for lighting and color. The company also claimed to have followed a 2007 report from the UK Model Health Inquiry called ‘Fashioning a Healthy Future,’ which recommends that models provide medical certificates of good health from doctors with expertise in identifying eating disorders.
Zara isn't the only retailer to face this type of scrutiny. Earlier this year, the ASA banned ads from Marks & Spencer and Next for similar reasons. These decisions have prompted discussions about why the fashion industry is enabling an environment where appearing ‘unhealthily overweight’ isn't frowned upon, but appearing ‘unhealthily thin’ is. The ongoing issue highlights the challenges and responsibilities of retailers in portraying a healthy and diverse range of body images in their advertising.
Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly has reaffirmed the government's dedication to President Abdel Fattah El Sisi's directives to restore Egypt's textile industry. He emphasized the initiative’s strategic importance to the national economy and local industrial growth.
In a meeting with Mohamed Shimi, Minister of Public Business Sector, Madbouly stated, the government aims to boost Egypt's competitive advantage in the global textile market by adding value to Egyptian cotton and increasing export capabilities. The meeting was also attended by Ahmed Shaker, Executive Managing Director, Holding Company for Cotton, Spinning, Weaving and Garments.
Minister Shimi provided an update on the sector’s restructuring, noting, the first phase of the modernization plan is complete and the second phase is 76 per cent finished. He anticipates, the second phase will be finalized by October, with the final stage wrapping up by April 2026.
Shimi also highlighted efforts to involve the private sector in the development process. The holding company is implementing a full reform strategy across all its subsidiaries, addressing technical, financial, administrative, and marketing aspects. This includes looking for investment opportunities and public-private partnerships to create sustainable jobs, reduce unemployment, attract investment, and make better use of unused assets.
US-based e-commerce retailer targeting millennial and Gen Z consumers, Revolve Group announced strong financial results for Q2, FY26. The company's performance was highlighted by a 9 per cent Y-o-Y increase in net sales, reaching $309 million.
This growth was driven by both its core Revolve segment, which rose by 9 per cent, and its luxury FWRD segment, which grew by 10 per cent.
The company’s international sales rose by 17 per cent Y-o-Y to $67.3 million. Domestic sales also grew by 7 per cent to $241.6 million.
Despite a challenging macroeconomic environment, the company achieved its highest adjusted EBITDA margin in three years, with adjusted EBITDA increasing by 12 per cent to $22.9 million. This was attributed to increased sales, a higher mix of their own branded products (which have higher margins), and improved operational efficiencies.
During the quarter, Revolve Group demonstrated exceptional cash flow generation, with free cash flow for the first half of the year increasing by an impressive 424 per cent compared to the same period last year. The company's active customer base grew by 6 per cent to 2.74 million, and the total number of orders placed increased by 7 per cent.
However, the company’s net income decreased 35 per cent to $10 million primarily due to non-operational factors such as a change in other income and a higher effective tax rate, rather than issues with the core business.
In H1, FY25, a key supplier of regenerated cellulosic fibers, Lenzing Group, reported a significant increase in both revenue and earnings compared to the same period the previous year.
The company's revenue increased to €1.34 billion, while its EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization) rose by 63.3 per cent to € 268.6 million. This strong performance was boosted by one-time gains from selling surplus EU emission allowances and the valuation of biological assets.
However, the company showed signs of a slowdown in Q2. According to Rohit Aggarwal, CEO, international tariff measures and the resulting market uncertainty put pressure on the textile value chain. Market prices for the company's fibers remained low, while the cost of raw materials, energy, and logistics stayed high.
Despite these challenges, Lenzing's ‘performance program; is proving successful. This initiative is designed to improve the company's long-term resilience and adaptability. By focusing on boosting profitability and cutting costs, the program has already made a clear contribution to earnings improvement. The company had already achieved over € 130 million in cost savings in 2024 and expects to exceed €180 million in savings this year.
Lenzing's strategy includes acquiring new customers, expanding into smaller markets, and making its cost structure more efficient. These efforts are expected to lead to further improvements in both revenue and margins in the coming quarters. The company has also successfully strengthened its capital structure, and the management team remains committed to securing a long-term turnaround and strengthening its margins.
Reacting to the 50 per cent tariffs levied by the US administration on India’s crude oil purchases from Russia, Sudhir Sekhri, Chairman, AEPC, says, these tariffs are a huge setback to the labor-intensive apparel export industry and sound almost like a death knell for players in the Micro and Medium apparel industry, especially those who majorly sell to the US market.
A key market for Indian RMG exports, the US held 33 per cent share in India’s total garment exports in 2024. From 4.5 per cent in 2020, India’s share in the US garment import market grew to 5.8 per cent in 2024 with the country ranking fourth among the top RMG exporters to the United States, Sekri notes. He urged the Central Government to provide direct fiscal support to the industry.
American Exchange Group (AXNY) has acquired the well-known women’s fashion brand specializing in apparel and swimwear-Venus. This move is a strategic step for AXNY to expand its portfolio of owned and licensed brands.
Founded in 1984 and based in Jacksonville, Florida, Venus has built a loyal customer base through its e-commerce and catalog retail channels by offering bold, confident styles.
According to Alen Mamrout, CEO, American Exchange Group, the acquisition aligns with the company's goal to grow its presence in the fashion and apparel sector. AXNY's resources and expertise will help unlock Venus’ full potential in a changing retail environment, he states.
Laura Bollier, CEO, Venus highlights, AXNY's support will allow Venus to sharpen its focus on its core identity of creating ‘bold, effortless, empowering fashion.’
Under the new ownership, Venus plans to streamline its product line into more curated seasonal collections and expand into new retail partnerships. The brand will continue to operate from its Florida headquarters, focusing on digital growth and improved customer engagement.
In a dramatic escalation of global trade tensions, U.S. President Donald J. Trump today signed an Executive Order imposing an additional 25% ad valorem duty on all articles imported from India. The move, effective in 21 days, is a direct response to India's continued importation of Russian Federation oil, which the administration states is undermining U.S. efforts to counter the ongoing "unusual and extraordinary threat" posed by Russia's actions in Ukraine.
The Executive Order, which builds on a previous 25% tariff announced earlier, means that Indian goods will now face an even higher effective import duty. The order explicitly states that the new tariff is "in addition to any other duties, fees, taxes, exemptions, and charges applicable to such imports."
In the order, President Trump writes: "I find that the Government of India is currently directly or indirectly importing Russian Federation oil." He adds that imposing this additional tariff is "necessary and appropriate" to deal with the national emergency stemming from Russia's actions.
The decision comes after repeated warnings from the U.S. administration and has been met with a strong defense from India's Ministry of External Affairs, which has previously called the targeting of India "unjustified and unreasonable."
Effective import duties and penalties
|
Type of Tariff |
Rate |
Application |
|
Existing Tariff |
Varies by product (e.g., 0% to 10.8% for textiles, gems, electronics) |
Standard duty on specific goods from India |
|
Previous Trump Administration Tariff |
25% ad valorem |
Announced earlier, applies to a broad range of Indian goods |
|
New Russian Oil-Related Tariff |
25% ad valorem |
Effective 21 days from today, applies to all articles of India |
Type of Tariff Rate Application Existing Tariff Varies by product (e.g., 0% to 10.8% for textiles, gems, electronics) Standard duty on specific goods from India Previous Trump Administration Tariff 25% ad valorem Announced earlier, applies to a broad range of Indian goods New Russian Oil-Related Tariff 25% ad valorem Effective 21 days from today, applies to all articles of India
The effective import duty on many Indian products is now significantly higher. For example, a garment that previously faced a 10% duty and the earlier 25% tariff will now be subject to an additional 25%, bringing the total duty to over 60%. The economic impact is projected to be substantial, with one think tank warning of a massive drop in Indian exports to the U.S.
"This move is a clear message to any country that seeks to profit from a relationship with the Russian war machine," said a senior U.S. official who spoke on the condition of anonymity. "The penalty for doing business with Russia is now severe and undeniable."
The Executive Order defines "Russian Federation oil" as crude oil or petroleum products "regardless of the nationality of the entity involved in the production or sale of such crude oil or petroleum products." It also includes "indirectly importing," which the order defines as purchasing Russian oil through intermediaries or third countries where the origin can be "reasonably traced."
The order will become effective on August 27, 2025, with exceptions for goods already in transit and set to arrive before September 17, 2025. The White House has indicated that the order can be modified if India or Russia takes "significant steps to address the national emergency." However, it also warns of further modifications should a foreign country retaliate.
Textiles and apparel industry faces dire consequences
The Indian textiles and apparel industry is expected to be one of the hardest hit sectors by the new tariffs. As a labor-intensive industry, the increased costs and potential loss of orders could lead to widespread unemployment and a severe economic downturn.
Sanjay K. Jain, Chairman of the ICC National Textiles Committee, painted a grim picture of the situation. "With an additional 25% tariff, which makes it 50% plus the earlier 15-16% at 65%... neither can the Indian supplier compensate them, nor can they bear it," he stated. "It’s going to be curtains, all new orders will not come, old orders will all have to be shipped at significant losses."
Jain's analysis highlights the critical nature of the U.S. market for India's textile industry, with a substantial portion of exports going to the U.S. The new tariff, combined with existing duties, makes Indian products uncompetitive compared to those from other nations like Vietnam or Indonesia, which face lower tariffs.
The impact, according to Jain, will not be limited to the factories themselves. It will "trickle down deep down much more than we can see," affecting a vast network of suppliers, including cotton farmers. He suggested that only a bold and immediate move by the Indian government to provide cash incentives could help the industry weather the storm.
Jain also noted the disparity in U.S. trade policy, pointing out that certain industries critical to the U.S. economy, such as pharmaceuticals, have been exempted from the tariffs. He speculated that a retaliatory measure by India, such as imposing an export duty on its own pharma products, could be a potential, albeit risky, move to force a change in the U.S. stance.
A new report from global management consulting firm Kearney suggests that while circular fashion has become a mainstream ambition, the industry is struggling to move from small-scale initiatives to widespread, systemic change. The fifth annual Kearney's Circular Fashion Index (CFX 2025), which evaluated 246 brands across 18 countries, shows that progress is slowing, with a gap emerging between a few leading brands and the vast majority of the market.
Sustained momentum, but at a slower pace
The CFX 2025, which analyzes brand performance across seven dimensions reflecting a product's full life cycle, found that average and median scores continue to rise, but at a decelerated rate compared to the previous year. The average score increased by 0.20 points to 3.40, and the median score rose by 0.20 points to 3.20. While this indicates sustained, positive movement, it is a slower rate of improvement than in 2024.
Over the past five years, average scores have increased by 1.4 points, and median scores by 1.6 points. "The industry has picked the low-hanging fruit," says Nora Kleinewillinghoefer, co-author of the report and partner at Kearney. "Most brands have implemented basic circularity initiatives like awareness campaigns or localized take-back programs. The real challenge now is translating these pilots into full-scale, integrated business models."
A growing divide
The report highlights a widening chasm between the leaders and the rest of the pack. More than 70 per cent of brands now fall into the ‘moderate’ zone, signaling that circularity is a priority for most companies. However, a small elite group of just 3 to 5 per cent of brands reached the ‘extensive’ implementation level, scoring above 7.0.
The top 10 list, which includes brands like Patagonia, Gucci, and Levi's, has remained largely unchanged for the third consecutive year. The bottom 80 per cent of brands, meanwhile, showed no improvement in their scores in 2025, a stark indicator of the struggles faced by the mid-tier.
Regional and category highlights
The report also reveals variations in circularity progress by region and product category.
Europe leads the way: European brands lead with an average score of 3.6, a jump of +0.4 points since 2024. This progress is largely attributed to the region's increasingly stringent regulatory environment, including the EU's Ecodesign for Sustainable Products Regulation (ESPR) and the forthcoming Digital Product Passports.
North America and Asia-Pacific: North America follows with an average score of 3.4 (+0.1 improvement), while the Asia-Pacific region recorded a score of 2.7 (+0.3 improvement). Japan showed a notable increase of +0.6 points, likely due to its culture of repair and reuse.
Top-performing categories: Underwear and lingerie saw the strongest increase in circularity scores, followed by luxury fashion, which demonstrated momentum in design, communication, and the use of raw materials.
Table: Highlights from CFX 2025
|
Region/Category |
Average score (2025) |
Year-on-year improvement |
Important drivers |
|
Global Average |
3.4 |
+0.20 |
Circular design, closing-the-loop initiatives |
|
Europe |
3.6 |
+0.4 |
Regulatory pressure (e.g., EU's ESPR, Digital Product Passports) |
|
North America |
3.4 |
+0.1 |
Consumer awareness, presence of major brands |
|
Asia-Pacific |
2.7 |
+0.3 |
Increasing consumer awareness, cultural practices (e.g., Japan) |
|
Underwear/Lingerie |
Data Not Specified |
+0.3 |
|
|
Luxury Fashion |
Data Not Specified |
+0.2 |
Design, communication, raw material use |
The report emphasizes that the primary barrier to scaled circularity is not a lack of awareness, but an execution gap stemming from systemic challenges. These include a lack of scalable infrastructure, poor system integration, and a missing clear business case for circularity. Circularity initiatives are often siloed in sustainability departments rather than being integrated into core business operations, such as product development and supply chain management.
Leaders in action
The CFX 2025 report points to several frontrunners who are successfully embedding circularity into their business models.
Patagonia and The North Face: These outdoor apparel leaders have long championed durability and repair. Their business models are built on the premise that products should last for a long time. They have extensive repair programs and actively encourage consumers to drop off old clothes for recycling, often incentivizing them with discounts on new purchases.
Gucci and Levi's: These brands, while operating in different segments, are making significant strides in "closing the loop. Gucci's luxury position allows it to offer high-quality repair services, which are supported by its high prices and margins. Levi's, known for its denim, has invested in take-back programs and is exploring new technologies to repurpose pre-consumer and post-consumer textile waste into new products.
On: The athleticwear brand is an example of a company integrating circularity from the very start. The report highlights On's use of life cycle assessment data in product development to inform its circular design principles and minimize environmental impact.
The Kearney CFX 2025 report serves as both a benchmark and a compass for the fashion industry. While the market for circular fashion is projected to grow significantly in the coming years, the report's findings are a clear call to action. As regulation moves from policy to enforcement, the industry must shift from declaring ambition to delivering evidence systematically, and at scale. The future of fashion, the report suggests, depends on a fundamental re-framing of circularity from a compliance exercise to a strategic lever for growth and innovation.
