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Indian cotton output to recover slower than expected

As weak rains limit yield recovery, cotton production in India will recover slower than thought earlier, say US officials. Yields will grow after a decent monsoon across many areas, but by barely by enough to outweigh the sharp drop in sowings. ‘Despite a generally good monsoon, below normal rains in some cotton-specific growing areas is expected to lead to yields that are lower than the USDA official forecast,’ the Delhi bureau of the Department of Agriculture (USDA) warned. The bureau based in New Delhi saw the country's cotton crop at 26.50 million bales, barely higher than the six-year lows touched last season.

The USDA had forecast that the crop would recover to 27 million bales this year from 26.40 million bales in 2015-16. Cotton plantings in India are forecast to fall to a seven-year low of 11.00 million hectares, down from 11.90 million hectares in 2015-16. ‘Higher input costs and better price realization for competing crops has prompted farmers to move away from cotton and pushed acreage downward from a year ago,’ the bureau informed.

The decline is not universal, as lower plantings in Gujarat and Telagana outweigh higher plantings in Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra. ‘The area in the state of Telangana has fallen as farmers have opted to plant more area in pulses, maize and paddy,’ the bureau said. Last week the International Cotton Advisory Committee forecast Indian cotton sowings at 11.2 million hectares noting that ‘better prices for competing crops, the late arrival of the monsoon and yield losses from pest pressure last season discouraged farmers’.

The Delhi bureau forecast consumption and imports in line with the official USDA forecasts at 24.0 million bales and 1.0 million bales respectively.

 
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