India’s cotton production for the current season is estimated to be 36 million bales.

Crop arrival for the current season through the end of April was about 31.1 million bales. Total consumption during the same seven-month time period has been 18.9 million bales, averaging 2.7 million bales per month. By the end of April, about 86 per cent of the season’s crop had arrived in the market.

Total supply for the full season ending in September is estimated to be 41 million bales. Total domestic consumption during the season will be 32.4 million bales. Exports will be 6.5 million bales.

Uncertainty regarding possible Chinese tariffs on imports from the United States, plus the weakening of the rupee against the dollar, may help boost Indian exports.

In November 2017, Indian production was expected to be about 37 million bales, but a pink bollworm infestation in Maharashtra, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh has reduced the output. Gujarat is India’s leading cotton producing state.

The next two or three months look bullish for the cotton sector. There is a need for quality cotton, and the price difference between quality and average cotton is widening.

Timely rainfall during the June-September timeframe will determine planting intentions. However, chances for diversification are also possible, as the edible oil sector performed well in 2017-18.