Cotton Association of India has increased its crop estimate for 2020-21 season from previous estimate of 356 lakh bales of 170 kg each (i.e. 378.25 lakh running bales of 160 kg each) to 358.50 lakh bales (i.e. 380.91 lakh running), an overall rise of 2.50 lakh bales.
Production, consumption to go up
As cotton production estimate for the new season (2020-21) is up 2.50 lakh bales, the committee members will closely monitor cotton arrivals in the subsequent months and if any addition or reduction is required to be made in the production estimate, reports CAI.
Estimates of total cotton supply till end of the cotton season 2020-21 that is upto September 30, 2021 was at 497.50 lakh bales of 170 kg each (equivalent to 528.59 lakh running bales of 160 kg each). This also includes the revised opening stock of 125 lakh bales at the beginning of the season, crop for the season estimated at 358.50 lakh bales of 170 kg each (equivalent to 380.91 lakh running bales of 160 kg each).
The CAI has also retained its consumption estimate for the current crop year at the same level as estimated earlier i.e. 330 lakh bales of 170 kg. each. Comparatively, consumption for the previous season was estimated at 250 lakh bales due to the COVID related disruptions. In fact, consumption is expected to reach pre-lockdown level of 330 lakh bales during the 2020-21 season.
Import down marginally, exports to remain same
Import estimates indicate it will be below at 14 lakh bales of 170 kg. each (equivalent to 14.88 lakh running bales of 160 kg each), less 1.50 lakh bales from 15.50 lakh bales in 2019-20 crop year. Till December 31, 2020, about 4.50 lakh cotton bales of 170 kg each arrived at Indian ports.
Export estimates on the other hand for the 2020-21 season are 54 lakh bales of 170 kg each (equivalent to 57.38 lakh running bales of 160 kg each), against previous years export estimate of 50 lakh bales. Till December end, an estimated 20 lakh bales of 170 kg each were shipped.
Meanwhile cotton stock held by mills as of December 2020 is estimated at 65 lakh bales of 170 kg each (equivalent to 69.06 lakh running bales of 160 kg. each). Mills have on an average about 72 days’ cotton stock in their godowns.CCI, Maharashtra Federation, MNCs, Ginners, MCX among others are estimated to have stock of about 159.85 lakh bales which is equivalent to about 169.84 lakh running bales of 160 kg each.
Therefore, the total cotton stock held by spinning mills and stockists by end of December 2020 is estimated at 224.85 lakh bales of 170 kg each, which is equal to about 238.90 lakh running bales of 160 kg each.