Significant changes in cotton production are expected for a number of countries in 2014-15 due to the effects of El Nino. World’s 2014-15 cotton area is forecast to remain nearly unchanged at 32.9 million hectares, but below the five-year average. The global yield in 2014-15 is forecasted below last several seasons at 764 kg per hectare.

The two largest producing countries—China and India—are expected to account for a combined 50 per cent of the global crop in 2014-15. In 2013-14, these countries contributed about 53 per cent of world cotton production. China is forecast to produce 29.5 million bales in 2014-15, nearly 8 per cent below the previous season and the smallest crop since 2005-06.

India’s 2014-15 cotton production is forecast at 28.5 million bales, a three per cent decline from the preceding year despite slightly higher area. Last season, production benefited from above average yields. Concerns about El Niño may discourage further growth in planted area. India’s yield is projected at 526 kg per hectare, near the three-year average.

Australia is also expected to reduce cotton production in 2014-15 as reservoir levels have decreased considerably from a year ago. In contrast, Brazil’s crop estimate has been raised as increased cotton plantings are expected. Pakistan and Uzbekistan are forecast to produce crops similar to the 2013-14 season. The largest increase is projected for the United States in 2014-15.