Cotton is expected to continue to lose market share in the ongoing season. Despite the loss of market share, world cotton consumption is rising in absolute terms.It appears that 2013-14 will be the fifth consecutive season in which cotton prices in China will be substantially above polyester prices in China. Falling mill use of cotton in China due to its cotton procurement policy is encouraging a significant shift in mill use to other countries.

World cotton production would be down 3.5 per cent from last season. The US will likely account for most of this decline, because US production will fall by 25 per cent. By contrast, production in China and Uzbekistan is projected to remain unchanged.

World cotton trade is forecast to decline by around a million tons
to less than nine million. This decline is almost entirely accounted for
by reduced imports into China. Shipments from all major exporters are
expected to fall, except from the CFA zone where producers are
increasing production this season, thus also exports, and in response
to higher cotton prices.

Estimates of mill use in India and Pakistan during 2011-12, 2012-13 and 2013-14 have been lowered.