According to a report by International Cotton Advisory Committee, Chinese imports are projected to fall by 24 per cent, to less than 1.4 million tons. China will likely remain the world’s largest importer in 2015/16, but its share of world imports has fallen from 55 per cent in 2011/12 to 22 per cent in 2014/15 and may only reach 17 per cent in 2015/16. Instead, imports to other Asian countries are taking on a larger share and will partially offset the decline.

In 2011/12, imports by the rest of Asia accounted for 31 per cent of world imports. In 2015/16, Asian imports excluding China are expected to reach 4.5 million tons, representing 60 per cent of world imports. Bangladesh, Vietnam and Indonesia are the three largest importers in the region outside of China. Imports by Bangladesh may slightly exceed one million tons in 2015/16, up 4 per cent from last season, while imports by Vietnam are projected up 5 per cent to 990,000 tons. After declining in 2013/14, imports by Indonesia increased 13 per cent to 735,000 tons in 2014/15 and may reach 780,000 tons in 2015/16.

Mill use in Asia outside of China is forecast to rise by 4 per cent to 12 million tons, representing 48 per cent of world consumption projected at 25 million tons in 2015/16. Mill use in India is expected to reach 5.6 million tons, up 3 per cent from 2014/15 and in Pakistan, 2.6 million tons, up 2 per cent from 2014/15. The cotton trade remains competitive as China’s cotton policy evolves and cotton-exporting countries continue to seek new markets. However, world production is forecast down 9 per cent to 23.9 million tons, about 1.1 million tons below consumption.

Although production in the United States is projected down by 11 per cent to 3.2 million tons and exports down by 9 per cent to 2.2 million tons, it will likely remain the world’s largest exporter. India, the world’s second largest exporter, could see a small recovery in 2015/16, with exports forecast to increase 15 per cent to 1.1 million tons.

www.icac.org