Bangladesh exporters may face an average tariff of over 40 per cent if the global trade war intensifies. The US would impose average tariffs of 30 per cent vs. seven per cent now); the EU would increase its own average tariffs from three per cent to 35 per cent, Canada from three per cent to 53 per cent, Mexico from almost nil to 60 per cent.

Even a very open trading economy such as Singapore would increase its tariffs from two per cent to 33 per cent. By unilaterally introducing tariffs, a large country not only limits its imports from the rest of the world, but also reduces the price of its imports relative to its exports, thereby benefiting from an improvement in its terms of trade.

These unilateral tariffs can be calculated by estimating the leverage each country has on international markets, depending on whether its trade policies are able to influence international prices.

Tariffs applied on developing countries’ exports could rise from three per cent to 37 per cent. But whereas average tariffs affecting countries like Nigeria and Zambia probably would not go above ten per cent, those against Mexico could reach as high as 60 per cent.