Economic Research Service’s Cotton and Wool Outlook report suggests for June 2020, the developing global economic slowdown has significantly reduced world cotton demand for marketing year (MY) 2019 (August 2019-July 2020). Although June’s global mill use forecast is at a 16-year low, the projected year-over-year decrease is nearly 15 percent.

The use of cotton mill across the world has declined more than 5 percent year-over-year in only 10 other years since MY 1920, with most of those reductions associated with global recessions, including the Great Depression. More recently, uncertainty surrounding the global financial crisis significantly limited world cotton demand in MY 2008, while a dramatic run-up in MY 2010 cotton prices to levels not experienced since the U.S. Civil War hampered mill use in MY 2011. While the overall severity of the COVID-19 pandemic remains unknown, the immediate shock to global cotton mill use has been historically significant.