India’s cotton production is projected to increase to 302.25 lakh bales of 170 kg each during the 2024-25 season, with imports rising to 25 lakh bales. Compared to 30.19 lakh bales last year, the country’s ending stocks for September 2025 are forecasted to decline to 26.44 lakh bales.
Global cotton production for 2024-25 is estimated to rise to 117.4 million bales, with higher outputs from India, Argentina, and Brazil. Driven by an increased demand from India, Pakistan and Vietnam, global cotton consumption is expected to expand by 570,000 bales, off setting declining consumption in China. While opening stocks have fallen by 428,000 bales, world ending stocks have grown by 267,000 bales.
Buoyed by a strong demand for cotton yarn from the apparel sector and robust exports, cotton candy prices in India increased by 0.04 per cent to Rs 54,160 per bale in 2024-25. However, domestic cotton arrivals in northern states like Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan plummeted by 43 per cent Y=o=Y as of November 30, 2024, disrupting the supply chain. Currently, farmers are holding back kapas (raw cotton) in hopes of better prices, causing a shortage of raw material for ginners and spinners.
The cotton candy market witnessed short covering, with open interest declining by 0.27 per cent to 367 contracts. Prices stabilized at Rs 53,260, with potential declines to Rs 52,350. Thus, the interplay of rising imports, fluctuating domestic supplies, and global market trends continues to shape India’s cotton sector, highlighting the need for strategic planning to balance supply and demand.
