India’s cotton imports for 2016-17 are not expected to be more than 25 lakh bales.
They were expected to be higher because of constraints in domestic supplies, higher local prices due to the fall in arrivals after November 8 and cheaper availability of good quality cotton overseas.
However, because of good seed sales and the early arrival of rains, India may harvest a bumper crop. Cotton seed sales have been good and rains are also good. Cotton prices are better when compared to other crops.
The annual rains have hit the peninsular coastline ahead of schedule. This has prompted many Indian cotton millers and traders to cancel or settle their import contracts. Concerns about the adverse impact of El Nino on Indian monsoons began fading, making cancellations mutually beneficial.
Some import contracts have been mutually cancelled, possibly reducing the import quantity for this year.
India’s 2017-18 cotton production is expected to increase because of a rise in the area under cultivation. Consumption is forecast higher also, both in China and the rest of the world. Trade is forecast up as stronger imports by Vietnam and Bangladesh more than offset lower imports in India, Pakistan, and Mexico.
For 2016-17, global use is raised, while production is down marginally, resulting in lower global ending stocks.