Cotton stocks across the world are projected to drop to 17.6 million ton by 2018-19 end, reflecting a decrease of 5 per cent from the prior year and registering the fourth straight year of decline. Consumption is expected to remain steady but production will decline by 3 per cent. Cotton production in China is expected to increase by 1 per cent to 5.94 million ton, and when combined with a 7 per cent decline in India’s production due to insufficient rainfall, China will regain the ‘top producer’ title it lost to India in the 2015/16 season.
Although cotton prices have come under pressure, current projections for global consumption are unchanged at 26.8 million ton with production projected to be slightly lower at 25.9 million tons. Cotton prices are feeling the effects of uncertainty related to the global economic environment, as opposed to the impact of trade barriers. Price fundamentals still look solid, as reflected in the price forecast.
