World cotton stocks are forecast to decrease following last season’s relatively small increase. Ending stocks are projected at 83 million bales for 2018-19, nearly six per cent below 2017-18 and the lowest since 2011-12. Global cotton stocks totaled a record 110.8 million bales at the conclusion of 2014-15, with China holding 60 per cent of the total. Chinese policies resulted in unusually large stocks in its national reserve. Subsequently, however, policies were implemented in China to reduce surplus stocks, resulting in lower world stocks.

For 2017-18, cotton stocks in China are forecast lower at 41.2 million bales, while stocks outside of China are expected to increase 22 per cent. For 2018-19, stocks in China are projected to decline further to 33.1 million bales—40 per cent of the global total—while stocks outside of China are forecast to approach a record 50 million bales. However, as a share of world mill use, stocks outside of China are expected to rise only slightly in 2018-19.

Reduced yields in 2017-18 in India are contributing to lowered planted area for 2018-19, with exports projected at 8,40,000 tons, representing a 24 per cent decrease from the previous season. Production in Brazil for the 2017-18 season is estimated to be 1.9 million tons, a 26 per cent increase from 2016-17.