A recent USDA India Post report projects, India's area under cotton cultivation may decline by 3 per cent to 11.4 million hectare during MY 2025-26. This shift stems from farmers opting for more profitable crops like pulses and oilseeds, which offer quicker returns. This contrasts with the 11.8 million hectare dedicated to cotton in MY 2024-25.
Despite the reduced acreage, cotton production is expected to remain stable at 25 million 480-pound bales, mirroring the current year's output. Increased yields, projected at 477 kg per hectare, are anticipated due to concentrated production in well-irrigated regions.
Cotton cultivation in Punjab is expected to remain constant, while the are under cotton cultivation in Haryana is likely to decline by 5 per cent as farmers switch to paddy rice. Rajasthan's acreage will likely decrease by 2 per cent, with farmers favoring guar, maize, and mung beans. India's leading cotton producer, Gujarat is projected to see a 3 per cent decline due to farmers shifting to pulses, groundnuts, cumin, and sesame.
Maharashtra's cotton acreage is expected to stay consistent, as farmers explore alternatives like pigeon pea and maize after low soybean prices. Madhya Pradesh forecasts a 5per cent reduction, with farmers gravitating towards oilseeds and pulses. Southern states like Telangana, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu may see a 7 per cent decrease due to ethanol production incentives favoring maize and rice.
Driven by steady international yarn and textile demand, the mill consumption of cotton is projected to rise slightly to 25.7 million bales Exports are expected to increase by 7 per cent to 1.5 million bales, supported by large carryover stocks and a weakening rupee. Imports are forecasted to decrease by 4 per cent to 2.5 million bales, though Indian mills will continue to rely on imported, contamination-free fiber.
The consumption of Extra Long Staple (ELS) cotton is expected to increase, with imports, primarily from the U.S., fulfilling demand. US ELS cotton maintains a significant market share in India, with a large portion re-exported as high-quality yarn and fabric. Concentrated in Central and Southern India, domestic ELS cotton production faces challenges due to low yields, high costs, and pest vulnerability.
