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Brazilian cotton output may be flat

Brazil’s cotton output is likely to be relatively flat in the 2019-20 season. Though over the last two years, Brazilian cotton output and exports have risen significantly the yearly growth rate of planting areas is likely to decrease in the 2019-20 season or even be negative. It may be related to the growers’ return. After the large input, and without obvious returns, growers will maintain normal production for next year.

Before the 1996-97 season, the yield of Brazilian cotton hovered at a low level, and then the yield improved gradually. In the 2018-19 season, the yield has grown by 215.8 per cent from 1996-97. In recent years, the influences of planting areas are larger than that of yield on output. Especially in the 2017-18 and the 2018-19 seasons, with the continual decrease of yield, the large rise of planting areas has pushed up cotton output. Viewed from this correlativity, Brazilian cotton planting areas and yield may be flat in the 2019-20 season, and the change on output may be also limited.

Brazilian cotton output is supposed to rise by 35.9 per cent year on year in the 2018-19 season and exports may rise by 43.7 per cent. In the 2019-20 season, output may edge up by 0.2 per cent and exports may rise by 42.9 per cent.