Even with a bumper crop India’s cotton imports may be as high as last years. For one, rains have hit the quality of the crop. Also, paucity of quality cotton may force textile mills to turn to overseas markets. Mills that make an assessment of quality early on and opt for import will be saving themselves the trouble of finding quality cotton later in the season. In addition to specific grades not produced in India, Indian mills may have to import a lot of varieties produced locally, where quality is an issue due to adverse weather.

India’s export prospects will largely depend on the difference between Indian prices and the benchmark Cotlook price. But exports will be of lower grade cotton, like the US did last year, due to identical weather conditions in that country. Last year, 70 per cent of US cotton exports were of lower grade. India is looking at a similar situation amid continued rains damaging open cotton bolls, which are in the process of drying.

Heavy rains continue to lash many cotton-growing areas of Maharashtra and Karnataka. India may be forced to import good grade cotton in 2019-20. Rains now could be devastating for the crop.