Compared to the previous season, India’s total cotton production is estimated to decline by 4 lakh bales to 250 lakh bales in 2024-25. In 2023-24, India’s total cotton production had increased to Rs 254 lakh bales, as per a report by USDA. This decline in production of 4 lakh bales is attributed to a reduction in sowing area of approximately 14 lakh hectare and crop damage from natural calamities in certain regions.

Based on bales weighing 480 pounds (213 kg), the USDA report estimates, total available cotton stocks in India are likely to be around 366 lakh bales. These will include 93 lakh bales of outstanding stock, 250 lakh bales from domestic production, and 23 lakh bales of imports.

In terms of consumption, 260 lakh bales are expected to be used domestically, while 13 lakh bales are likely to be exported, with the remaining 93 lakh bales to remain as surplus stock by the end of the season.

In comparison, India had a starting stock of 108.20 lakh bales during the 2023-24 season. It produced 254 lakh bales and imported 8.90 lakh bales.

Domestic consumption totaled 255 lakh bales, and exports amounted to 23.10 lakh bales, leaving a surplus stock of 93 lakh bales at the season's close.

The USDA’s surplus stock estimate has been questioned by India’s Cotton Association, which believes the figure is higher than expected.