The trade war between the US and China may have a bad impact on the Asia Pacific region. Tensions have begun to disrupt existing supply chains and dampen investor confidence, as evidenced by the deceleration in trade growth after the first half of 2018.

At this rate export growth may slow to 2.3 per cent in 2019, compared to a nearly four per cent growth in export volume in 2018. FDI inflows to the region are also expected to continue in their downward trend next year, following a four per cent drop in 2018.

Since many of the main export industries in the region are relatively labor-intensive, a contraction of exports could spell at least temporary hardship for many workers. Asia and the Pacific will see a minimum net loss of 2.7 million jobs due to the trade war, with unskilled workers, often women, shouldering a more severe impact.

If the tariff war escalates in 2019 and investor and consumer confidence drop, global GDP could ultimately be cut by nearly $400 billion, also driving regional GDP down by $117 billion dollars. Almost nine million people could be put out of work in the region, with many more workers also moving to new jobs in different sectors.