National Cotton Council economists point to a few key factors that will shape the U.S. cotton industry’s 2020 economic outlook.

This past year can be characterized as a year with significant uncertainty and volatility in the global economy and the world cotton market. On January 15, 2020, Trump signed the Phase 1 trade agreement with China. As part of the agreement, China has agreed to purchase an average of $40 billion in U.S. agricultural commodities, including cotton, over the next two years. However, the overall impact for cotton remains uncertain as commodity specific details have not been released.

While the Phase 1 trade agreement provided some cautious optimism for an improvement in the cotton economic situation, the China coronavirus outbreak in the early weeks of 2020 could delay China’s ability to increase purchases in the near-term. As a result, the potential impacts of the coronavirus represent a significant wildcard in the outlook for the world cotton market in the 2020 crop year.

In her analysis of the NCC Annual Planting Intentions survey results, Campiche noted that export markets continue to be U.S. raw fiber’s primary outlet. World trade is estimated to be higher in the 2019 marketing year, but the retaliatory tariffs and increased competition from other major exporting countries has led to a sharp decline in the U.S. trade share in China. Despite the continued U.S.-China trade disruptions, U.S. export sales to other markets have been very strong for the current crop year.

Sales reached the highest level in the marketing year during the week ending on February 6. While export competition from Brazil remains strong, the U.S. has had increased opportunities for export sales to other markets in the 2019 crop year. Lower production in Australia, Pakistan, and Turkey has led to higher U.S. export sales. As a result, the United States will remain the largest exporter of cotton in 2019 with 16.5 million bales.

Prior to the implementation of tariffs, the United States was in a prime position to capitalize on the increase in Chinese cotton imports. With the imposition of the 25.0 percent tariff, China has turned to other suppliers during the 2018 and 2019 marketing years, allowing Brazil, Australia, and other countries to gain market share. Vietnam is currently the top export market for U.S. cotton in the 2019 crop year, followed by China and Pakistan.

U.S. exports are projected to drop slightly to 16.4 million bales in the 2020 marketing year. For this outlook, the U.S. is assumed to export 2.5 million bales to China in the 2020 crop year as compared to an estimated 2.0 million bales in the 2019 crop year. However, with record stocks outside of China, increased production in Brazil, and a partial recovery in Australia’s production, the U.S. will continue to face strong export competition in 2020.

Based on the underlying assumptions and resulting cotton balance sheet, stable stocks outside of China, increased export competition from Brazil, recovery in Australia’s production, and low manmade fiber prices will have a bearish influence on cotton prices. A quick containment of the coronavirus and a successful implementation of the Phase 1 trade agreement would provide support to prices.