US gross domestic product is set to increase 2.9 per cent in 2018 and 2.8 per cent in 2019.
The recent US tax reform combined with higher public spending ceilings in 2018 and 2019 will provide a fiscal stimulus of around one per cent of GDP in both years, representing a sizeable short-term boost to growth.
First-quarter GDP growth was revised down 0.1 per cent to 2.2 per cent, a sharp but temporary downshift from the approximately three per cent growth over most of the previous year.
Greater domestic demand is being choked off by a stronger dollar.
US economic recovery and expansion has been remarkable and appears set to continue for the coming two years. But there are also some serious risks on the horizon, including trade policy, that could threaten much-needed growth. Further policy reforms are needed to sustain the expansion and ensure that all Americans benefit from stronger and more sustainable growth.
While Americans appear to be doing well on average in comparison to other OECD countries, job losses have become more persistent in areas hit by structural shocks, especially in the industrial heartland. This has created areas of high unemployment, non-participation in the labor force and poverty.
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