World cotton production is forecast to grow 8.2 per cent over the previous year.The projected increase in cotton output is due to price-driven area increases for most major cotton producers, and significant improvements in outlook for a few countries, namely Pakistan, China, and Mexico.

Almost alone among major cotton-producing regions, the African Franc Zone is forecast to yield its largest crop ever obtained, at about 5.2 million bales. Despite this improving outlook, global production remains below the levels seen before the extremely poor-yielding 2015-16 crops.

The forecasts show an upward revision for consumption growth from 2.2 per cent last month to 2.6 per cent. Forecasts for China, India, and Pakistan were all raised appreciably, boosting the forecast growth rate for consumption without greatly increasing forecast demand for imports, especially as China and Pakistan have larger forecast 2017-18 production, and thus comparatively ample expected supplies.

The consumption revision, however, is smaller than the upward revision to global production, resulting in higher forecast ending stocks. Further, global trade forecasts are lowered, driven by lower import demand in producer countries, especially Pakistan. These higher forecast 2017-18 ending stocks are located outside of China (where forecasts of the degree of destocking have been increased), with the result that pressure on prices is expected to continue.