An expected global recession in the second half of FY23 is now top of the mind for business communities around the world. Just when the global economy was recovering from the pandemic, the Russian-Ukraine war led to further economic instability disrupting supply chains, increasing prices of all commodities including apparel and creating geopolitical tensions. And a new Covid surge in China with strict lockdowns has impacted global economy even further.

Growth decline a cause of concern

The IMF which works to achieve sustainable growth and prosperity for all its 190 member countries recently released its global economic outlook survey which has projected a 2022 global GDP growth to reach 3.2 per cent as compared to 6 per cent last year. Although this indicates a decline in growth rate by 46 per cent from 2021, it is set to further decline by 16 per cent to reach 2.7 per cent in 2023. Growth projection of advanced economies has seen a decline of 5.2 per cent last year to 2.4 per cent in 2022 and 1.1 per cent in 2023 which translates to a drop of 53.8 per cent in 2022 from 2021 and 54 per cent in 2023 from 2022.

With the strongest-ever tightening in history as governments withdraw Covid restrictions and raise interest rates to control persistent multi-decadal high inflation globally, a series of hikes in rates of various commodities has led to an economic slowdown for all countries. In the last year, Fed funds rate has seen the biggest change ever since 1981 in the ECB target rate since the Eurozone was created along with the largest tightening of global central bank policy since 1980.

Globally, things are not looking good and the light at the end of the tunnel is still rather dim. In 2023, slow growth will force a down-turn in the US if core inflation persists; Europe is going into a recession driven by an escalation in energy prices while China reels under a new Covid wave and delays the reopening of many segments.

Closer home, Sri Lanka’s monthly export in October 2022 also fell for the first time in seven months as global demand for industrial products led by the garment segment has sharply declined when global recession looms ahead.

Analysts hopeful about India

Almost all emerging markets and developing economies’ outlook are facing a post-pandemic downward slide and this is reflected in the Indian economy too. In October 2022, India’s exports of non-oil goods were at $25 billion which translates to -18 per cent lower than last year and 28 per cent lower than the highest monthly goods exports of $34.7 billion. Although the service sector exports sum up over 50 per cent of gross value added with the manufacturing sector contributing less than 20 per cent the disruptions in the global supply chain will significantly affect manufacturing industry much more than the general impact on the domestic economy. Experts say, exports are less than a fifth of the domestic economy, so while factoring in the reduced export figures, India’s GDP will continue within the fastest-growing emerging countries with a growth rate of 6.8 per cent in FY23.

Summing it up well is a recent World Bank report titled ‘Navigating the Storm’ which says that “India’s economy is relatively more insulated from global spillovers than other emerging markets. India is less exposed to international trade flows and relies on its large domestic market. India’s external position has also improved considerably over the last decade.” Analysts remain hopeful while the pull-down external economic environment will negatively affect India’s growth prospects, the present economy is better than the other emerging markets to weather the storm better and use global spill-overs to its advantage.

Cotton output in northwest China's Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region topped 5.39 million tons in 2022, up 2,62,000 tons over the previous year. The autonomous region contributed 90.2 per cent of the country's total cotton output this year. The cotton planting area in Xinjiang edged down in 2022 to around 2.5 million hectares, accounting for 83.2 per cent of the national planting area. The cotton yield in Xinjiang averaged 143.9 kg per mu in 2022, an increase of 7.5 kg per mu over the previous year.

Xinjiang has ranked first in China for 28 consecutive years in terms of total cotton output, per unit yield, planting area, and commodity allocation. Xinjiang has seen mechanized and intelligent cotton planting in recent years, with machines doing over 80 per cent of the picking work.

Since the 1990s, Xinjiang has gradually become the largest cotton production base in China and an important producer of the crop throughout the world. Nearly half of the local farmers are engaged in cotton production. The use of cotton made in China’s Xinjiang Uyghur autonomous region has been facing criticism in the wake of allegations of forced labor. It is difficult to rule on the legality of the entire process of manufacturing cotton products, which involves a number of stages, including cotton cultivation, spinning and sewing.

Prices of raw cotton in India are currently at least 10 to 14 per cent higher than prices in international markets. This disparity is impacting Indian textile industry. Demand slowdown in export markets is another cause of worry for Indian industry, especially textile and apparel exporters.

The industry is therefore looking for proactive support so it can face the twin challenge in the global market. It wants the 11 per cent import duty imposed on cotton to be removed in order to create a level playing field for the domestic industry. Indian cotton is costlier than international cotton, including the Chinese fiber.

Besides this, the industry is also seeking a stimulus package to support the spinning, weaving, fabricating, garmenting and home textiles sectors. In view of the firm trend in prices, which are 20 per cent higher than global rates, the natural fiber consumption will likely be lower. Indian cotton consumption is expected to decline by nearly 27 lakh bales. Arrivals are low as farmers are holding back the produce. Over 125 lakh bales of cotton have been harvested. But hardly 50 per cent of the harvested crop has arrived in the markets. Farmers want prices like last year.

China’s garment exports fell by 14 per cent year on year in November 2022. Though the exports of garments declined in November 2022; the cumulative export values from January 2022 to November 2022 (Year to Date) increased by five per cent year on year.

China shipped $ 141.80 billion worth of garments in the first eleven-month period of 2022, as compared to the $ 134 billion shipment values during the same period in the corresponding year. As far as textile exports are concerned, China shipped $ 136.87 billion worth of yarns, fabrics and other textile products from January 2022 to November 2022, outnumbering last year figures of $ 130.94 billion.The increase in textile and apparel shipment was recorded despite the prevailing Covid situation in China. Till October, the demand for apparel and textile products in 2022, kept factories up and running across China.

China is in the middle of an outward shift of its low-end textile and apparel industry, and this is expected to continue in the future.China's garment industry registered steady expansion in terms of revenue, profits and exports in the first nine months of this year. The industry’s revenue was up two percent year on year. Profit was up 1.8 percent over one year ago.

Apparel suppliers in Bangladesh are expecting a moderate recovery in exports in the upcoming year.

This optimism is based on the fact that sales in the western world are gradually gaining pace with a new normal arising from the Russia-Ukraine war and the falling prices of petroleum products.This in turn is causing inflationary pressure in the western world to subside gradually, effectively leaving more money in the pockets of the consumers, enabling them to start spending on the purchase of clothing items.Christmas sales were also upbeat, with old stockpiles of clothing of international retailers and brands worth billions of US dollars being sold off.

This has prompted international clothing retailers and brands to start coming up with new work orders for factories and make inquiries for future purchases.However, Bangladesh’s exporters don’t expect a strong recovery in apparel shipments. The real recovery is expected to start from only March onwards. Uncertainty still prevails over when the war will come to an end and many issues have not been resolved yet, which may have an impact on global trade. Work orders for the next season between January and April are still some 15 per cent to 20 per cent less than what they had been in the preceding season between September and December.

Apparel imports of Japan from January 2022 to October 2022 rose by 27 per cent year on year in terms of value. In volume terms imports during the ten-month period of 2022 grew up by five per cent.

China’s exports to Japan grew 22 per cent year on year. China has a 56 per cent share in total apparel import values of Japan. Vietnam’s exports to Japan grew by 41 per cent. Imports from Bangladesh valued were up 35 per cent in January 2022 to October 2022 whereas India’s apparel exports to Japan grew by 23 per cent. Japan’s apparel imports from Pakistan and Indonesia declined in weight-wise exports on a year on year basis.

Imports of clothing and accessories by Japan increased by 40 per cent year on year in October 2022.They were three per cent of Japan’s total imports during the period. The country’s imports of textile yarn and fabrics in October 2022 were 45 per cent higher than the same period of last year. Yarn and fabric imports were one per cent of the total imports by Japan.

The country’s exports of textile yarn and fabrics during October 2022 increased by 17 per cent year on year.

Garment factories in Sri Lanka are closing down. One reason is enhanced electricity tariffs. Since factory owners are finding it hard to compete with other countries that have much lower overheads, they are taking steps to shift to other countries.

One company which has three factories in Sri Lanka has decided to shut down and has asked its 5,000 workers who will lose their jobs to apply for employment to its factories in India. The US, EU and the UK comprise about 86 per cent of Sri Lanka’s total apparel exports. But despite impressive exports so far in 2022 the industry envisages a 25 per cent to 30 per cent decline in the remainder of the year. This is mainly due to the economic downturn’s impact on future orders from the US and EU, while the war in Ukraine has pushed up logistics and energy costs.

Sri Lanka’s apparel exports fell nine per cent in November 2022. Exports to the US were down by 17 per cent while shipments to the EU (excluding exports to the UK) saw a marginal drop of three per cent and exports to the UK fell by 29 per cent.

The apparel industry is Sri Lanka’s largest exporter , employing nearly one million both directly and indirectly, across 350 manufacturing plants island wide.

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Famous for its heritage tourism of Angkor Wat as the largest religious structure on earth, Cambodia is now rapidly branching out as a global sourcing destination with some all-new trade licenses. The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) trade deal as well as the Cambodia-China Free Trade Agreement (CCFTA) implemented from January 1, 2022 has given a new lease of life to the country’s trade growth in the post-pandemic era within just a year.

Trade pacts RCEP and CCFTA bring hope

These two trade pacts ensure a more diversified export product portfolio which will help to integrate Cambodia into a more prosperous regional and global economy. Experts feel they could help the country move up from its least developed country status in just five years in 2028 and then further focus on achieving its milestone of becoming an upper-middle income country in 2030 and a high-income nation by 2050

The RCEP is a free trade agreement (FTA) between 10 member states of the Association of Southeast Asian countries and it can raise Cambodia's exports between 9.4 per cent and 18 per cent annually now that Cambodia has joined it. The CCFTA will also help in ratifying the bilateral FTA with China, which aims to increase the trade of goods by reducing and eliminating tariffs. A recent Cambodian government report has shown that the country’s trade with RCEP member countries was valued at $24 billion during the January-September 2022, which was up 11 per cent year-on-year, while its bilateral trade with China also increased in the past year.

As per Ministry of Commerce undersecretary of state and spokesman Penn Sovicheat both RCEP and the CCFTA are catalysts for long-term and sustainable trade growth and the two trade pacts are a magnet to attract more FDI to the country. Higher FDIs means more new capital and new job opportunities. He feels trade growth is only moderate now as there hasn’t been enough recovery time after the, but growth will be far higher in 2023 and beyond due to the RCEP and CCFTA deals.

He feels Cambodia stands to gain a lot from these FTAs because although they are a small country, they have already become a part of regional and global supply chains, and already specialized in producing garments, shoes, travel goods, part components, and bicycles for export to the world. The RCEP and the CCFTA free trade agreements will mutually open the market in all participating countries and give the farmers choices to export their agricultural products to various countries. For a small country, it will give an extra edge to having a larger market access with preferential tariffs and also become a part of regional and global supply chains. With specialized export segments such as garments, shoes, travel goods, part components and bicycles among others, these two trade licenses will open up further opportunities for exports to more countries and a diversified portfolio.

The 15 Asia-Pacific countries that are members of the RCEP, the world's largest trading organization, include 10 ASEAN and their five trading partners of China, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand. As a Joseph Matthews, a senior professor at the BELTEI International University in Phnom points out, this agreement holds huge potential for all participating countries to boost their trade and investment and to quicken their economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. Under the RCEP deal, all member countries will reap long-term benefits by integrating further into regional and global supply chains and creating new jobs for their respective people.

Labour-intensive textile, apparel, diamond and engineering units in states including Gujarat, Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra have issued advisories asking workers to abide by Covid protocols so as to prevent a resurgence of the pandemic.

The development comes in the wake of reports of mounting cases of the infection in China. Surat is looking at how to provide booster doses to the workersof the textile and diamond trades. The diamond and textile units in Surat together employ about 2.8 million people. Tirupur has 1.2 million workers and has sought to allay fears about a fresh wave of the pandemic among migrant workers so that they do not leave their workplaces.

The latest Covid outbreak sweeping China has begun impacting the global textile and apparel supply chain. This has raised uncertainty over production delays and factory closures.The Omicron variant of the Covid virus is making its way across several big cities in China after the country made a U-turn on its former zero-Covid policy of containment earlier this month.The spread of infections, which has hit China’s capital city Beijing the most, is threatening widespread business disruption to the world’s second-largest economy and largest apparel exporter. More than half the population has been infected.