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In its final Cotton: Review of the World Situation edition for 2025, the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) highlights, global cotton prices are increasingly decoupled from simple supply-demand economics. While the outlook for the 2025/26 season projects a rebound in global cotton trade by 2 per cent to 9.7 million tons - aided by steady mill demand in key textile hubs like Vietnam and Bangladesh - the long-term pricing stability hinges on structural factors. Lorena Ruiz, Economist, ICAC notes, environmental policies and evolving trade measures, rather than just macroeconomic cycles, are now the primary shapers of market sentiment. This means the textile and apparel sector must adjust to a new reality where raw material costs are highly sensitive to non-market interventions.

Sustainability and climate uncertainty in the fiber mix

ICAC data for the 2025/26 season projects, global production and consumption will hold steady at around 26 million tons and 25.7 million tons, respectively. However, the anticipated A Index price range (56 to 95 cents per pound, midpoint 73 cents) reflects extreme uncertainty. This volatility is driven by the producer's struggle to manage rising input costs and climate uncertainty. Furthermore, the report indirectly emphasizes the growing challenge from synthetic fibers; textile brands are increasingly sourcing sustainable alternatives, pressuring cotton producers to adopt advanced practices. ICAC's own focus on cutting-edge technologies like virtual reality training for cotton researchers underscores the industry's need for radical innovation to ensure cotton’s continued sustainability against fierce competition in the global fibre market.

Formed in 1939, the ICAC is a United Nations-recognized intergovernmental commodity body comprising cotton-producing, consuming, trading, and investing countries. It serves as a clearinghouse for technical and economic information to maintain a healthy world cotton economy. Key activities include providing statistical transparency on global supply and demand (including beginning stocks, production, and mill use data) and acting as a forum for discussing international cotton issues.

 

India's second-largest employer, the textile and apparel sector faces a fierce fight for global competitiveness, leading the Confederation of Indian Textile Industry (CITI) to urgently demand the permanent removal of the 11 per cent import duty on cotton. This plea comes as the sector reels from devastating external trade barriers, most notably the 50 per cent tariff imposed by the US - India’s largest export destination - which has been in effect since August 27, 2025. This tariff wall, compounded by a similar new 50 per cent duty from Mexico, contributed to a steep decline of nearly 12.9 per cent in textile and apparel exports in October 2025 compared to the previous year. The industry requires cost parity to offset these punitive duties.

Bridging the price gap for global orders

The necessity for duty-free raw material is magnified by two crucial domestic factors: a projected decline in cotton output for the current season (2025-26) and persistent concerns over fiber quality, often requiring mills to import high-grade, contamination-free cotton (about 6 per cent of total production, or 2 million bales annually) to meet global buyer specifications. Ashwin Chandran, Chairman, CITI, stressed, removing the duty would reduce the divergence between domestic and global prices and restore the competitiveness of India's spinning and textile industries. While the government temporarily exempted the duty until December 31, 2025, CITI argues, a permanent waiver is essential to provide cost stability, prevent job losses, and allow the MSP mechanism to function without disrupting downstream market costs.

An apex industry body representing the entire organized textile value chain in India, CITI is mainly involved in advocating for policies that enhance the sector’s global competitiveness and domestic growth. The Indian textile industry contributes approximately 2 per cent0 of the country's GDP and is critical to employment, with the goal of reaching $100 billion in exports by 2030. CITI is currently focused on leveraging government schemes like the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) and the PM MITRA Parks to modernize infrastructure and diversify the product base, aiming to stabilize the sector amid international trade volatility.

 

The textile and apparel industry is currently facing a digital imperative to comply with a wave of stringent EU sustainability regulations, most notably the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD). This mandate, which forces large firms to trace and mitigate human rights and environmental harms in their direct supply chains, is directly fueling the demand for specialized ESG software.

To meet this compliance crunch, two specialized firms, Rajesh Bheda Consulting (RBC) and Redefine Information Technologies, have strategically partnered. The collaboration aims to merge RBC’s deep, thirty-year expertise in apparel supply chain transformation with Redefine's digital platform, Sattva – Safe & Sustainable. This fusion is critical, as effective ESG implementation—especially for complex requirements like supply chain mapping—demands both domain knowledge and technological scalability. Maneesha Sharma, RBC notes, sustainability is now integral to how we think, operate, and engage," underscoring the shift from isolated social initiatives to core business strategy.

A solution for Tier I transparency

The partnership directly addresses the industry's pervasive challenge: the lack of systematic documentation and monitoring. As the CSDDD's initial focus is heavily on direct suppliers (Tier 1), the Sattva application provides textile manufacturers and brands with a transparent, structured mechanism to report ESG performance. By integrating consultancy-led best practices into a user-friendly digital application, the collaboration aims to not only prevent non-compliance penalties -which could include fines or public naming - but also to unlock operational benefits like reduced waste and enhanced resource efficiency across the value chain.

Rajesh Bheda Consulting (RBC) is a management consulting firm headquartered in Gurugram, India, specializing in enhancing the competitiveness and performance of organizations within the global fashion and lifestyle industry. They provide consulting, training, and capacity building services focused on operational excellence, supply chain improvement, and strategic performance enhancement, with a strong commitment to Sustainable Development Goals.

 

India’s textile and apparel export sector is staging a significant late-year recovery, driven overwhelmingly by the value-added apparel segment. While the cumulative exports for the fiscal year (April-November ’25) remain marginally in the red at -0.35 per cent compared to the previous year, November ’25 shipments delivered a powerful monthly growth of 9.40 per cent overall. This turnaround was spearheaded by Apparel, which grew by an impressive 11.27 per cent in November, easily surpassing the 7.99 per cent rise in the base textiles segment. This monthly data offers much-needed optimism following a period where cumulative Textiles exports recorded a -2.27 per cent degrowth.

Value-addition and market diversification drive growth

The robust performance in Ready-Made Garments (RMG) highlights the success of product value-addition initiatives. This segment, which saw cumulative growth inch up to 2.28 per cent (April-November ’25), is benefiting from the government’s comprehensive strategy to diversify beyond traditional Western buyers. Data shows strong momentum in non-traditional markets like Hong Kong (+69 per cent) and Egypt (+27 per cent) in H1, FY26. According to the Confederation of Indian Textile Industry (CITI), the focus is now on manufacturing high-value man-made fibre (MMF) apparel and technical textiles, aligning with the revised Production Linked Incentive (PLI) Scheme. Amendments in October ’25 reduced the minimum investment limit by 50 per cent and lowered the incremental turnover criteria, aiming to boost investment by Rs 2 lakh crore and reduce entry barriers for MSMEs seeking to scale up in these advanced segments.

The structural shift is towards future-ready textiles. The Technical Textiles segment, which is supported by the PLI scheme and the establishment of PM-MITRA Parks, represents a major opportunity. These products, used in automotive, healthcare, and industrial applications, are projected to grow substantially. This move up the value chain, away from basic cotton yarn, is key to sustained growth. A strong signal of commitment is the India-UK Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA), signed in July 2025, which aims to reduce trade barriers and enhance market access, a crucial step for achieving the sector’s long-term export goals.

 

Dior has unveiled its flagship store- House of Dior Beijing in China. Designed by Pritzker Prize laureate Christian de Portzamparc, the store is a strategic vote of confidence in China's stabilizing luxury market. It was unveiled in Sanlitun alongside a cluster of other major LVMH openings.

With its iconic, petal-shaped façade and imperial golden glass tiles, the five-storied structure is positioned to transform retail into a high-culture destination. The store's integrated elements, from the first looks by Jonathan Anderson, Creative Director and the first designer since Christian Dior to helm all three divisions: women's, men's, and couture to the Monsieur Dior restaurant run by Chef Anne-Sophie Pic, reflect a shift from transactional shopping to immersive, art-de-vivre experiences.

The Anderson effect and financial strategy

The debut of Anderson’s vision, which notably includes a modern reframing of house codes like the Lady Dior bag and Bar Jacket silhouettes, aims to inject newness and drive consumption among China's affluent Gen Z and Millennial shoppers who value cultural relevance. Following a challenging 2024 for the broader LVMH Fashion & Leather Goods group in China, this substantial investment targets a market recovery. Analysts predict, China will account for 40-45 per cent of global luxury sales by 2025. By placing its full universe - from haute couture to La Collection Privée fragrances - in this single, monumental, 360-degree visible location, Dior is elevating its brand narrative to capture renewed, albeit more cautious, consumer spending. This strategy is critical to leveraging the improved trend seen in the Rest of Asia region in the latter half of 2025.

Founded in 1946 by Christian Dior, the French luxury house is the controlling shareholder of LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton, the world's largest luxury group. Dior operates across multiple product categories, including Women's Ready-to-Wear (RTW), Couture, Leather Goods, Accessories (including the iconic Lady Dior and Saddle bags), Fine Jewelry, Timepieces, and Fragrances/Beauty (La Collection Privée). The brand is globally present, with its largest markets including Europe, the US, and Asia, where Greater China is a primary growth engine.

 

The Great Sourcing Shuffle Why tariffs failed to bring manufacturing back to the US

 

When Washington set out to ‘reclaim manufacturing’ through punitive tariffs, it was envisioned as a patriotic reset one that would bring back the hum of American sewing machines and the pride of Made in USA labels. But the reality unfolding across global apparel boardrooms tells a very different story. The US administration’s tariff regime especially on imports from major suppliers like China, India, and Brazil has done little to trigger domestic production. Instead, it has ignited a global supply chain exodus, with American brands quietly redrawing their sourcing maps toward tariff-resilient countries.

In effect, tariffs have become a ‘fixed cost of doing business’, not a tool for reshoring. And the only sustainable corporate response has been diversification, innovation, and scientific compliance not domestic revival.

The diversification imperative: Flexibility as the new efficiency

The modern sourcing map for US-facing apparel brands resembles a patchwork quilt no longer dominated by China, but distributed across a constellation of smaller, nimble suppliers in Vietnam, Jordan, India, and Eastern Europe. For sourcing executives, diversification is no longer optional; it’s a risk strategy. Facing tariffs as high as 50 per cent on India and Brazil, and higher rates on China, companies are building multi-country manufacturing footprints to avoid single-point failures. “You don’t beat tariffs by making everything in America you beat them by never depending on one country again,” says a sourcing head at a leading US activewear brand.

Table: Shifts in US apparel import share (2020–2025)

Country

Import share (%) 2020

Import share (%)2025

Change (bps)

Comment

China

36.8

22.5

-1,430

Sharp decline due to cumulative tariffs

Vietnam

13.4

18.9

+550

Key beneficiary of relocation

India

6.7

9.8

+310

Gains from preferential sourcing deals

Jordan

2.9

5.2

+230

Expanding under QIZ and FTA frameworks

USA (domestic)

2.1

2.4

+30

Negligible movement despite policy intent

The data illustrates that while Asia remains dominant, the geography within Asia is shifting. Vietnam and India have capitalized on the tariff turbulence, while domestic US manufacturing has failed to capture any meaningful uplift.

Treating tariffs as a permanent variable

Rather than lobbying for exemptions, most firms are institutionalizing tariff costs. Internal documents from several US importers describe these duties as fixed variables, which is costs to be managed, not avoided. This has given rise to supplier-partnering models, where brands and vendors share the burden across logistics, packaging, and material margins. For example, bulk order consolidation to reduce freight costs or lightweight packaging to minimize shipping weight and early-payment incentives to offset cash flow constraints. The focus is now on absorbing, not escaping, tariffs with operational efficiency serving as the real currency of resilience.

The Made in USA mirage

Despite the policy rhetoric, the hard truth is that us apparel production continues to shrink. tariffs on imported inputs fibers, yarns, and trims have created a tariff-on-tariff trap. “Even if you cut and sew in the us, your yarns, dyes, and zippers still cross borders and still attract tariffs,” notes a textile economist at the American Apparel & Footwear Association.

Table: US textile and apparel manufacturing output index (base year: 2015 = 100)

Year

Output Index

YoY Change (%)

2018

94

-1.2

2020

90

-4.3

2022

86

-4.4

2025

83

−3.5 (est.)

Even after years of tariffs intended to protect domestic industry, production continues to decline, suggesting that import barriers alone cannot rebuild an industrial base that depends on global raw material inputs.

The innovation shield, science, sustainability, and circular design

As trade unpredictability grows, innovation is emerging as the ultimate tariff shield. Forward-looking firms are now investing in materials and models that make their supply chains both circular and classification-proof.

Tariff-resilient materials: Firms are developing modular, decentralized materials that can be produced closer to end markets. This includes sustainable hemp blends, bio-based fibers, and lab-grown alternatives that qualify for lower tariff classifications under the Harmonized Tariff Schedule (HTSUS).

Circular value chains: Companies are shifting toward textile-to-textile recycling starting production with waste rather than virgin fiber. This not only cuts raw material dependency but also isolates the value chain from tariff volatility.

Compliance through science: The intersection of trade regulation and ethics is pushing brands toward scientific verification tools like stable isotope and DNA traceability to prove raw material origin. This converts compliance from a bureaucratic headache into a strategic advantage, reducing detention risks and misclassification penalties.

Table: Innovation pathways in US apparel sourcing (2023–25)

Strategy

Adoption Rate (%)

Primary Impact

Sustainable / Hemp Blends

42

Tariff rate reduction & HTS reclassification

Textile Recycling Integration

35

Raw material insulation

Stable Isotope Verification

18

Compliance proof, reduced detention risk

Onshore Digital Sampling

27

Faster, low-volume prototyping near H

The data underscores a clear shift from tariff avoidance through geography to tariff resilience through innovation. Science and sustainability are now supply chain instruments, not marketing slogans.

The 2025 sourcing scenario highlights: tariffs have succeeded in changing trade routes, not in reshoring production. The result is a more fragmented but agile global ecosystem where sourcing decisions are driven less by patriotism and more by precision. American brands are building flexible, tariff-resilient networks that stretch from Vietnam’s industrial parks to India’s cotton hubs, from Jordan’s QIZ zones to Romania’s nearshoring corridors. In short, the world has adapted faster than the policy. The Made in USA ideal remains powerful in rhetoric but in practice, it’s Made for the USA that now defines the global supply chain of 2025.

  

Philippines’ textile and apparel (T&A) exports are projected to grow by 2 per cent-5 per cent in 2026, building on an expected revenue increase this year. According to the Foreign Buyers Association of the Philippines (FOBAP), this optimism is fueled by government efforts to reduce US tariffs and industry expansion into new markets.

Robert Young, President, FOBAP, who is also a trustee for the textile sector of the Philippine Exporters Confederation Inc. (Philexport), stated, revenues from apparel and garment exports in 2025 are expected to rise to $1 billion, from approximately $900 million last year. Young noted, advance deliveries helped mitigate the impact of the current US tariff.

A key factor driving the positive outlook is the government’s push to secure exemptions from the current US tariff, which stands at 19 per cent for most Philippine goods entering the country. Frederick Go, Finance Secretary recently indicated the government’s hope to eliminate this tariff for garment, travel accessories, and furniture exports, following the precedent set by key semiconductor and agricultural goods that are already exempt.

Young stressed the industry's need for stronger market access through trade agreements. He pointed out, the Philippines lags behind its neighbors, having the ‘least number of FTAs among the ASEAN countries,’ and urged the government to pursue more Free Trade Agreements with regions like the European Union, Canada, and Australia to support continued export growth.

Furthermore, to boost competitiveness, industry players are requesting government subsidies to offset high operating costs, particularly for power and labor. Young mentioned ongoing discussions with the Department of Labor and Employment (DOLE) to potentially secure tax deductions or other concessions tied to export performance. The successful reduction of the US tariff and expansion of the FTA network are seen as critical factors determining the industry’s success in 2026.

  

A vital segment for low-count yarn production, the open-end spinning mills in Coimbatore have been forced to cut operations drastically, now running for as little as two to three days per week as of December.

This severe scaling back is a direct result of an ‘irrational’ price hike in waste cotton - the primary recycled fiber feedstock for these mills. Spinning mills selling the waste have hiked prices for materials like Comber Noil by Rs 4-Rs 8 per kg over the last two months. This is a paradoxical situation since the price of new raw cotton has declined significantly. This artificial inflation has rendered the recycling process financially unviable.

The OE sector specializes in converting this waste (eg., Comber Noil rising from Rs 100 to Rs 108 per kg into 2-count to 30-count yarn, which supplies handlooms and power looms for staple products like 'kada' (sheeting) fabrics. Industry leaders, including the Recycle Textile Federation, confirm, mills cannot raise their output yarn prices to match the input cost hike due to weak market orders and high existing stocks. Mill operators fear that a reduction in prices for 20-count yarn could trigger a collapse in the North Indian 'kada' trading market. This crisis threatens the OE segment, which relies on a historical business model of cost-effective, recycled inputs to underpin the low-cost apparel and textile manufacturing chain. The Federation has now instructed members to procure materials only based on last month’s prices, signaling a market standoff to prevent further losses.

  

The prospect of the India-European Union Free Trade Agreement (FTA) nearing completion is indeed being called a ‘game-changer’ by industry bodies like CTA Apparels.

The most significant benefit of the FTA is the expected elimination of the import duties currently imposed by the EU on Indian textile and apparel goods. Indian apparel exports to the EU currently face a standard EU tariff that averages around 9.6 per cent. However, once the FTA is implemented, these tariffs would be scrapped or phased out. This immediately makes Indian products 9.6 per cent more competitive on price compared to rivals who do not have an FTA with the EU.

The tariff elimination directly addresses the competitive disadvantage India faces compared to its top rivals like Vietnam and Bangladesh in the EU market.

These major competitors already benefit from preferential access. Bangladesh, as a Least Developed Country (LDC), enjoys zero-duty access under the EU's Everything But Arms (EBA) scheme. Vietnam also has a functioning FTA with the EU.

The FTA will put India on a similar footing with Vietnam and significantly reduce the price gap with Bangladesh, allowing India to increase its market share.

The EU is already India's second-largest export destination for textiles and apparel. The removal of duties is projected to lead to substantial growth. Industry experts project that the FTA could lead to 20 per cent to 30 per cent growth in apparel exports to the EU within the first two years of implementation.

The FTA is also essential for India’s market share in EU’s T&A imports which currently stands at 5 per cent.

The increased demand and market assurance provided by the FTA will likely attract major investment in the Indian textile and apparel sector, particularly in the Man-Made Fibre (MMF) segment and Technical Textiles, which are high-value areas.

India's geographical proximity compared to some Far East competitors, combined with stable supply chains, will appeal to EU buyers seeking faster delivery and a 'China plus one' sourcing strategy.

  

The European Union (EU) is dramatically accelerating its efforts to counter the flood of low-priced Chinese goods entering the market, primarily targeting e-commerce giants like Shein and Temu. Effective July 1, 2026, a flat-rate tax of €3 will be applied to small non-EU parcels, marking the end of the long-standing customs duty exemption for consignments valued under €150.

This move is strategically aimed at addressing the massive volume of imports, 91 per cent of which - totaling over 4 billion consignments in 2024 - originated from China. Roland Lescure, Economy Minister, France emphasized the urgency, noting the unfair competitive advantage these duty-free parcels have over European retailers who pay full taxes.

The tax measure had been planned as part of the Customs Union reform but was not set to apply until 2028. However, amid intense pressure led by France, the 27 member states agreed in November to implement the duty change ‘as soon as possible’ in 2026.

The challenge now is establishing a ‘simple and temporary’ taxation method until the new customs data platform is operational. Lescure advocated for a flat-rate tax over proportional taxation, arguing that a fixed fee would be a more effective deterrent against the high volume of low-value shipments. European diplomats, however, noted the difficulty of implementing such a provisional system quickly using current resources.

Beyond the €3 tax, the EU’s offensive includes the introduction of handling fees starting November 2026, proposed at €2 per parcel. This fee will help finance the development of enhanced customs controls, aiming to ensure imported goods comply with EU standards and to intercept dangerous or counterfeit products. Together, the new tax and fee are designed to level the playing field for European businesses against the rising tide of ‘made in China’ competition.

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