According to a new study by the Bain Consultancy, the global luxury goods sector is likely to collapse by 35 per cent this year due to coronavirus lockdowns, It would take two to three years to return to 2019 global sales of around $303 billion -- with the forecast decline much steeper than the single-digit drop recorded after the 2008-9 crisis.

The coronavirus crisis is expected to lead to a spate of mergers and acquisitions of weakened brands, the closure of single-brand stores and reshaping of already suffering U.S. department stores. Customers are also likely to emerge from global lockdowns with a new set of priorities.

The semi-annual study for the Italian luxury goods producers' group Altagamma foresees the most dramatic drop in sales during the second quarter, when they are forecast to slide up to 50 per cent, followed by a milder contraction in the second half. The study does not forecast the impact of another round of lockdowns, should the virus peak again.

For the full-year, Bain forecasts luxury sales of apparel, handbags, footwear, watches and beauty products of €189 billion to € 220 billion. The degree of the year-end hit will depend on whether there are rebounds in the local markets -- something already being seen in China and Asia -- and to what extent domestic and regional tourism is able to resume.