India’s cotton crop production may fall 7.87 per cent in the 2018-19 season. Drought in many cotton-growing regions of Gujarat, a few regions of Maharashtra and a few areas in other cotton growing states has affected the yield. Though the crop size is smaller this year in comparison to last year, the cotton supply position is comfortable with a big ending stock of 40 lakh bales. Thanks to a big opening stock, smaller exports and large imports, the production deficit is well covered. As for the crop situation next year, the highly remunerative kapas (cotton) prices during the current year and the monsoon projection would induce Indian farmers to prefer to grow more cotton.

Due to these factors, cotton prices are likely to remain steady and range-bound. Early monsoon and import arrivals in India may create downward pressure on cotton prices from June 2019. The cotton crop output for the previous season ended September 2018 was 370 lakh bales. The worst output in the past 12 years stood at 348 lakh bales, higher than the current season’s projection of 343 lakh bales. The Cotton Corporation of India has started selling its stock, which will further increase liquidity in the cotton market. A six per cent rise in global cotton production is expected for 2019-20.