According to National Retail Federation (NRF) chief economist Jack Kleinhenz, economic recovery across the United States from the pandemic is likely to come gradually and may vary by location. After seeing growth at an annualized rate of 2.1 per cent at the end of 2019, US gross domestic product shrank by 4.8 per cent in the first quarter of this year, ending a record 10-year period of economic expansion. That was the largest drop since 8.4 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2008 during the Great Recession.

Considering the economy was buoyant through the middle of March, the first-quarter decline is likely just a murmur of how severely the pandemic has devastated many parts of the US economy. Retail sales saw their worst month-over-month drop on record in March, falling by 8.7 per cent from February. And consumer spending fell an annualized 7.6 per cent during the first quarter, the largest drop since the second quarter of 1980. Despite those declines, the pandemic has hit the retail industry unevenly.

Temporarily closed stores are bearing the brunt of the impact while stores that remain open have had customers lined up out the door to stock up on essential goods. Consumer confidence has also taken a hit. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index was at 86.9 in April, its lowest level since June 2014, and consumers’ view of current conditions saw a record 90-point monthly drop to 76.4. But consumers’ expectations for conditions six months in the future were more optimistic, rising seven points to 93.8.