The newly released USDA’s Nov’24 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report indicates, cotton production, exports, and global trade are likely to decline during the month, reflecting a tightening supply.

For the US, the cotton balance sheet for 2024/25 reveals, cotton production and exports are likely to decline slightly alongside increased ending stocks. The USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) lowered US the cotton production estimates by 10,000 bales to just under 14.2 million bales. This change includes a 200,000-bale increase in Georgia’s crop, which is balanced by a similar decrease in Texas, while the national yield estimate remains steady at 789 pounds per harvested acre.

With reduced global cotton demand and imports, US cotton exports are also are also decline by 200,000 bales to 11.3 million, while ending stocks may rise by 200,000 bales to 4.3 million, resulting in a stocks-to-use ratio of around 33 per cent. The season average upland cotton price remains at 66 cents per pound. The USDA has made no adjustments to the 2023/24 U.S. cotton balance sheet.

Globally, the 2024/25 balance sheet reflects lower production, consumption, trade, and stocks. Production is reduced by 460,000 bales, with Pakistan and Turkmenistan experiencing the largest cuts. Global consumption is down by 515,000 bales, driven by declines in Turkey and Pakistan. Ending stocks are also lower by 574,000 bales, with significant reductions in India, Turkmenistan, and Pakistan, which are only partially offset by increases in the U.S. and Uzbekistan.

Global cotton trade is likely to decline by 295,000 bales due to decreased imports by Turkey, although imports by Uzbekistan and Egypt are likely to increase. The report also includes historical revisions to the 2023/24 global balance sheet, resulting in lower ending stocks due to revised production estimates.