USDA’s June 2025 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report reveals notable adjustments for the 2025/26 cotton season, highlighting tighter supply conditions in the US domestic market and downward revisions globally.

According to this report, in June 2025, US cotton production is forecast to decline by 500,000 bales to 14.0 million bales from last month and below 2024/25’s 14.4 million bales. This marks the second-smallest crop in a decade.

The total area under cotton cultivation is projected to decline by 2 per cent to 8.19 million acre primarily due to heavy rains and delayed planting in the Delta region.

National average yield is estimated to decline by over 1 per cent to 820 pounds/acre, largely linked to Delta weather challenges.

Beginning stocks are estimated to reduce by 400,000 bales, reflecting higher 2024/25 exports. Estimates for ending stocks have been lowered by 900,000 bales to 4.3 million bales, with a stocks-to-use ratio of 30.3 per cent.

However, despite tighter supplies, the 2025/26 season-average price remains steady at 62 cents/pound.

Meanwhile, global cotton production is likely to decline by over 800,000 bales. Though China’s crop is estimated to rise by 1 million bales, this would be offset by production cuts in India, the US, and Pakistan.

Estimates for global cotton consumption have been lowered by over 300,000 bales, with Egypt seeing gains but offset by declines in India, Turkey, and Bangladesh.

The estimates for global exports have been revised down slightly by 40,000 bales, as country-level changes mostly offset one another.

Global beginning stocks have been cut by 1.1 million bales, mainly due to a smaller India 2024/25 crop while global ending stocks for 2025/26 have been reduced nearly 1.6 million bales, reflecting tighter starting inventories and production falling more than consumption.

The June 2025 WASDE underscores ongoing supply pressures and uncertain global dynamics shaping the cotton market heading into 2025/26.