With 2025 its date of expiry drawing close, the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) that gives duty-free benefits to goods of designated sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries, is now set for a change for better or worse. The AGOA legislation was approved by the US Congress in May 2000 and signed by President Clinton to promote better economic growth through good governance and free global markets. 

As it expires, one change that may happen is that the legislation may be replaced with new trade agreements between US and African countries who follow the free trade policies of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AFCFTA) agreement along with trade policies of the Prosper Africa initiative, also sponsored by the US.

US-African summit highlight AGOA report issues

AGOA in its current form is an extension of the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) , which is the US trade preference system introduced in 1974 that allows more than a 100 countries mainly low-income nations, to export most of their goods duty-free into the US. At the US-African Leaders Summit 2022 held in Washington DC last December, to enhance cooperation on shared global priorities there was a hint at a probability of an AGOA extension before the up-coming 2025 deadline, although that has not taken place yet. 

At the summit, many leaders such as Katherine Tai as US Trade Representative spokesperson addressed the media about the urgent need to discuss “ways in which we can improve AGOA - including how we can increase the utilization rates, particularly among smaller and less-developed countries, as well as ensure that the program's benefits fully reach all segments of society.”

The US International Trade Commission (USITC) in April 2023 analyzed the trade and economic impact of AGOA and provides utilization rates, recent trends in US imports under this act. It also details the impact of the program on regional integration, workers and underserved communities, economic development and job growth among other important data. The AGOA report includes case studies on four industries that are present in the SSA viz. apparel, cotton, cocoa, and certain chemicals

SSA countries try to maintain regular apparel exports to the US

Around 20 countries are currently eligible for AGOA’s apparel provision and 90 per cent of US apparel imports from AGOA members in 2021, were from the five SSA countries. These are: Kenya 31.5 per cent, Madagascar 19.9 per cent, Lesotho 20.6 per cent, Ethiopia 18.3 per cent and Mauritius 5.1 per cent. 

The much needed AGOA benefits are updated regularly for SSA countries to maintain their apparel exports to the US. Whenever a country has lost its lost AGOA eligibility, there has been a significant decrease in apparel imports, for example, Rwanda and Madagascar saw it between 2000 and 2021.

SSA apparel manufacturers usually prefer supplying to the US as it is easier and more economically-viable than the European markets. This is because US brands place bigger orders for higher volume bulk basic garments, which doesn’t need high-tech skills local African workers. 

Currently, most SSA countries do cut-and-sew operations of apparels based on imported raw materials mainly from Asian countries. There are many challenges in building a fully flourishing local textile industry in SSA. Most SSA manufacturers do not have the expertise to make various types of yarns and fabrics that are most in demand by US buyers and easy access to textile inputs from sources outside SSA is not always feasible financially and logistically. Reliance on imported textiles reduces the incentives for investing in new textile production capabilities within SSA countries. 

Indeed, AGOA has been limited in building a more integrated regional textile and apparel supply chain in SSA countries since its inception. Perhaps the new changes will give it more strength to benefit Africa. 

China's textile and apparel exports grew year-on-year from January to May 2023, but the export value was affected by pricing and exchange rate factors. May's export value, measured in Chinese Renminbi (RMB), decreased by 10.8% compared to the previous year and 1.1% compared to the previous month. 

Textile exports fell by 11.9% year-on-year and 5.5% month-on-month, while apparel exports declined by 9.8% year-on-year but increased by 3.2% month-on-month. In US dollars (USD), China's textile and apparel export value in May dropped by 13.1% compared to the previous year and 1.3% compared to the previous month. 

Textile exports decreased by 14.2% year-on-year and 5.6% month-on-month, while apparel exports declined by 12.2% year-on-year but rose by 3% month-on-month. The analysis of customs data revealed that only Categories 54, 55, and 62 showed positive growth during the January-May period, while other categories experienced declines compared to the same period last year. 

The growth in textile and apparel exports can mainly be attributed to polyester filament yarn and polyester staple fiber .However, downstream products and fabric exports did not exhibit growth but instead declined. 

The increase in polyester fiber exports reflects industry transfer, exploration of overseas markets, and is partly influenced by India's Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS). The long-term sustainability of this trend remains uncertain.

Online retail in India is projected to surpass organized retail by 2030, according to a Deloitte report. The growth of modern retail, including malls and supermarkets, may more than double to $230 billion by 2030, while online retail is expected to reach $325 billion, growing 2.5 times compared to its 2022 value of $70 billion. 

The overall physical retail market, comprising organized retail and traditional mom-and-pop stores, is set to nearly double to $1.6 trillion over the same period. Traditional retail is predicted to dominate, reaching $1.3 billion, up from $750 billion in 2022. 

The report highlights the influence of emerging channels such as social commerce, quick commerce, and direct-to-consumer (D2C) platforms, reshaping the shopping habits of millennials and Gen Z. 

Investments in specialized vertical e-commerce are also expected to increase. Within e-commerce, quick commerce is anticipated to grow significantly, reaching $40 billion by 2030, while social commerce is projected to reach $55 billion. The expansion of the retail sector will be driven by rising incomes and demographic changes, with 65% of India's population falling into the key consuming cohort of 15-59 years until 2030. 

This growth is expected to contribute to the expansion of the Indian middle class by adding 110 million households. India is currently among the top five retail markets globally and is expected to become the third-largest by 2030, trailing behind China and the United States. The food and grocery retail segment, which currently holds a 65% share of the total retail market, is projected to double by 2030. Categories like apparel and footwear, as well as gems and jewelry, are also expected to experience rapid growth. 

The report emphasizes the significance of tier-2 and tier-3 cities, which are driving the next phase of growth in India's retail sector. Retailers are expanding their presence beyond tier-1 cities to meet the increasing demand. Additionally, the rapid growth of e-commerce in smaller cities is reshaping the retail landscape, with over 60% of orders coming from these regions in 2022.

European Uyghur Institute sues Inditex, Fast Retailing, and Skechers over alleged human rights abuses in China. Uyghur workers claim forced labor, including surveillance and camp involvement. Evidence, including a video of Uyghur workers making Skechers shoes, awaits verification. 

Brands face challenges navigating Xinjiang cotton controversy, fearing Chinese consumer backlash. Xinjiang produces a significant share of global cotton, but accusations of Uyghur detention in internment camps led to the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act impacting imports to the US. 

Adidas, H&M, and Nike previously faced Chinese boycotts for criticizing Xinjiang cotton. Nike explores new strategies, like hyperlocal product launches, to mitigate sales impact. 

Despite trade discussions, Xinjiang cotton remains a sensitive issue for Western brands. Some, like Patagonia, relocate production to avoid involvement.

Technavio's latest market research report, titled "US Hosiery Market 2023-2027," predicts substantial growth in the US hosiery market. The market is expected to increase by USD 2,992.99 million between 2022 and 2027, exhibiting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.95%. The comprehensive report analyzes the market, encompassing key drivers, major trends, and challenges. 

The report highlights the intense competition within the market, prompting vendors to implement growth strategies like promotional activities and increased advertising expenditure. Market positioning is emphasized, showcasing strategies employed by leading vendors such as Gildan Activewear SRL, Spanx LLC, and Wells Hosiery and Apparel USA. 

Driving market growth are factors such as the high demand for designer and soft hosiery products, especially those made from organic and natural materials. Additionally, the report identifies a significant trend of increasing demand for socks in the healthcare industry due to the rising prevalence of chronic diseases. 

However, changes in trade policies pose challenges to market growth, particularly with the influence of China as a major market contributor. 

Despite the US remaining the primary market for Cambodian textile and garment exports, the country experienced a significant drop in apparel exports during the initial four months of 2023. Cambodia's apparel exports to the US amounted to $643.886 million, accounting for 26.50% of the country's total exports worth $2,807.546 million during this period. 

However, this figure represents a substantial 50.32% decline compared to the corresponding period in 2022. In the first four months of 2022, Cambodia exported garments worth $1,497.387 million, while the figures for January to April in 2021, 2020, and 2019 were $1,097.180 million, $977.303 million, and $819.210 million, respectively. 

Analyzing the product breakdown, trousers and shorts emerged as the leading apparel exports, generating $230.292 million and constituting 31.39% of the total garment exports. Jerseys followed with $122.014 million (16.63%), shirts with $67.086 million (9.14%), baby wear with $47.581 million (6.48%), T-shirts with $43.340 million (5.91%), nightwear with $33.623 million (4.58%), and dresses with $31.846 million (4.34%). 

While the US continues to be Cambodia's largest export market for textiles and garments, the notable decline in apparel exports raises concerns for the industry's performance in 2023. 

Former President Zardari, addressing the All Pakistan Textile Mills Association (APTMA), expressed confidence in achieving $100 billion exports with textile industry support. 

He emphasized the need for textile entrepreneurs to lead the ministries of textile and finance, propelling the country's progress. Zardari highlighted the advantages of trade with Iran, aiming to reduce textile industry input costs through affordable gas and LNG imports. 

He urged Pakistani entrepreneurs to learn from Bangladesh's success in marketing their products internationally. Zardari pledged to sign the Charter of Economy, ensuring a level playing field for the business community. 

He invited the textile industry to invest in cotton crops in JhalMagsi, stressing fair prices for farmers and improved seed quality. Gohar Ejaz, in his address, outlined plans for 1,000 garment units, aiming for $50 billion exports in five years and creating jobs.

The cotton yarn segment, derived from plant sources, is poised to capture the largest market share in 2023, leading the way in the textile yarn industry. 

Cotton yarn has maintained a prominent position due to its exceptional properties and sustained demand in the textile sector. Especially favored in the clothing industry, cotton yarn is renowned for its comfort and breathability, making it the preferred choice for a wide range of garments including t-shirts, jeans, dresses, shirts, and innerwear. The demand for cotton yarn remains consistently high in the clothing sector. 

During the forecast period, the home textile segment is expected to experience 

e significant growth in the application segment. Home textiles encompass a diverse range of products such as bedding, curtains, upholstery fabrics, towels, rugs, and more, which enhance the aesthetic appeal and functionality of residential spaces. China is projected to hold the largest market share in the Asia-Pacific region in 2023. 

Leveraging its substantial manufacturing capacity, well-established textile industry, and cost-effective production, China is well-positioned to meet both domestic and international demand for textile yarns. 

In summary, the cotton yarn segment is set to dominate the textile yarn market, while the home textile segment shows promising growth, and China leads the market in the Asia-Pacific region.

The global luxury market is expected to see strong growth of 5 to 12 percent in 2023, driven by post-pandemic demand, according to a report by Bain and Altagamma. Valued between €360 and €380 billion this year, the market is predicted to reach €530 to €570 billion by 2030. 

Asia and Europe will fuel this growth, while the US faces a slowdown due to inflation and recession, impacting aspirational luxury spending. China's luxury market is rebounding, with Hong Kong and Macau experiencing a surge in spending by Chinese tourists. Luxury brands are capitalizing on this by hosting exhibitions and collaborating with local talent. 

Southeast Asia is also witnessing strong growth, thanks to Russian tourists, Chinese consumers, and increased demand for jewelry and watches. Japan is identified as a rising star, with both local customers and inbound tourists showing a strong interest in popular accessories. In contrast, the US luxury market has plateaued, prompting brands to rethink their strategies. 

Affluent Americans are increasingly buying luxury goods abroad due to wider price differences. While areas like New York and California regain popularity, destinations like Hawaii and Las Vegas are yet to fully recover to pre-pandemic levels.

Perhaps, gender inequality in modern society is most apparent in the sports segment with girls not given the same encouragement as men to retain their interest in sports as a young adult. There is a strong need to educate parents, coaches, and training institutes with the kind of knowledge and experience that can not only help make sport fun for girls but also give them a better financial future.

Nike as one of the world's biggest brands of sports shoes, clothes, and equipment has launched many programs and released guides over the last few years on coaching girls and keeping them motivated in sports all through life and this is slowly making headway globally. A recent US meeting of the CNBC CEO Council that brings together global decision-makers across industries had Nike’s CEO John Donahoe stressing on the fact that employing more female coaches in various sports segments would encourage more young girls to participate and be retained against the many odds of playing active sports through adulthood.

Hiring more women coaches will retain girls in sports

As per Aspen Institute’s Project Play - a global nonprofit organization for creating an equitable society, strongly backed by Nike – many young girls are giving up on active sports as they become teenagers since they are not given the same kind of coaching opportunities as men and no one to understand their needs as almost 75 per cent of youth head coaches are men. 

Puberty changes a girl's body and mind and hinders a more sustainable relationship with active sports and female coaches would be positive role models to encourage them achieve their true potential. While for boys, puberty is just the opposite as they gain more muscle mass and become stronger and command more respect among peer groups when they excel in active sports.

“Most young people rarely, if ever, get the opportunity to be coached by a woman. This is a miss for all. To get girls active and invite them into a lifetime of sport, they have to see it to believe it – and that starts with more female coaches,” Vanessa Garcia-Brito, Vice president and Chief Social and Community Impact Officer, Nike explains.

Programs to encourage women in sports

Nike’s Aspen Institute Made to Play Coaching Girls Guide report says in some parts of the world, girls are dropping out of sports at twice the rate of boys for easily addressable reasons that can be prevented if there are female coaches to help them keep playing and get better with practice. It’s not just Asian countries with gender inequality issues, even in the US they get fewer sports opportunities than boys with barriers such as lack of experienced women coaches and sophisticated sports-specific apparel and equipment. Hiring women coaches globally in the sports segment is currently critical as personal needs such as reaching puberty, wearing fitted proper sports bras, societal issues, and gender biases are best understood by women for women.

Nike recently launched a program called ‘Coaching HER’ with the University of Minnesota’s Tucker Center for Research on Girls and Women in Sports, is a digital online coaching institute that will help coaches of all genders to improve their understanding of gendered bias and discrimination.

The maximum drop-off from games for girls globally occurs in the pre-teen and teenage years of 11 to 17, where they are most pressured to conform to social identities, whereas this is the age when boys learn to better themselves and excel in their favorite sport. With global giants like Nike having already addressed this global issue, other sport giants are expected to follow suit and rid the world of this menace of gender inequality in the sports arena.