Thanks to stable global demand and low ending stocks world over, the Junagadh Agricultural University (JAU), has predicted prices of cotton that stands at around Rs 4,750 per quintal is likely to reach Rs 5,100 after January. The price forecast report released by the department of agriculture economics of JAU states that for the second consecutive year, India will remain the largest cotton producer country in the world, bypassing China once again. The report notes that the area under cotton cultivation in the country has gone down from 119 lakh hectares in 2015-16 to 105 lakh hectares in the year 2016-17.
But despite this reduction in acreage, the overall production is expected to remain high. According to the report, the production is estimated to about 321 lakh bales in 2016-17, as against 301.5 lakh bales last year. This is mainly due the good monsoon in major producing states like Gujarat, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka.
The report further states that cotton acreage has gone down in Gujarat also. It estimates cotton cultivation in about 23.82 lakh hectares in the current year as against 27.19 lakh hectares last year. However, production is expected to remain almost the same as last year at about 91 lakh bales,thanks to evenly distributed normal rainfall and good precipitation received in the first week of October which has brightened the yield prospects in unirrigated areas too.
Citing reports of International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC), the JAU forecasts cotton cultivation in the world has dropped by one per cent but the production is likely to fall by seven per cent to 1,325 lakh bales as against 1,241 lakh bales last year.