As per the September 2024 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report by USDA, global cotton production is expected to decline by 1.2 billion bales to 116.4 million bales during the 2024-25 season. Global ending stocks are expected to contract by 77.6 million bales to 76.5 million bales reported in August.
The report also reduces the estimates for global cotton consumption by about 460,000 bales. It identifies key markets such as Vietnam, Bangladesh, and Turkiye as those expected to see notable decreases in consumption, with consumption in Vietnam declining by 200,000 bales and that in both Bangladesh and Turkiye lowering by 100,000 bales each.
The decrease in global cotton production is likely to be primarily driven by smaller crops in the United States, India, and Pakistan, which more than offset a production increase in China. Additionally, global trade is expected to decline by approximately 550,000 bales, as reduced imports from China, Vietnam, Turkiye, and Bangladesh offset an increase in imports by India.
Despite these changes, the world cotton price, represented by the ‘A’ Index, remains steady at 81.5 cents per pound. The global balance sheet for the 2023-24 season has been updated to reflect higher beginning stocks, increased mill use, and lower ending stocks.
The USDA’s estimate for US cotton production in 2024-25 has been reduced by 600,000 bales, bringing the total to 14.5 million bales. US cotton ending stocks were also lowered by 500,000 bales, leaving them at 4 million bales. This decrease in US production is attributed to lower yields for upland cotton in the Southwest, with the September National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) forecast showing yields down to 807 pounds per acre, 33 pounds less than the previous month.
With reduced production, US cotton exports are projected to fall by 200,000 bales to 11.8 million, and ending stocks will now account for 29 per cent of projected use. The season-average upland farm price for 2024-25 remains unchanged at 66 cents per pound. Revisions to the 2023-24 US cotton balance sheet includes a 400,000-bale increase in beginning stocks and a reduction in unaccounted bales due to revised data and methodologies.
