Cracks are beginning to form around the world. The world’s two largest economies -- the United States and China -- are starting to cool. The central danger to global outlook is the US trade conflict with China, due to the potential to spillover to the rest of the world. The dispute threatens to derail, halt or shift hundreds of billions of dollars in global trade but the US also is threatening tariffs on auto imports.

Steep US tariffs on steel and aluminum already have hit the bottom line of American manufacturers. Continued escalation of the tariff threats could cut 0.8 percentage points off global growth. The trade conflict threatens to undercut growth, hamper investment and spur US inflation.

The US recovery will soon become the longest in recorded history but the boost provided from last year’s tax cuts is dwindling. Rising interest rates and a shortage of workers are crimping the housing market. Other worries are the surge of borrowing by heavily indebted companies, the huge weight of US student loan debt and the impact of rising interest rates on home buying. Europe faces political and economic upheaval and Japan remains in a long-term funk. Chinese manufacturers say they feel they’re entering a slowdown and that they are being hurt already due to higher export costs and overcapacity.