US cotton exports to China have declined substantially due to the US-initiated trade war. The quantity tumbled from some 5 million bales in 2012-13 to somewhere between 1.7-1.8 million bales in the 2018 marketing year. China consumes the largest volume of cotton in the world -- about 40 million bales annually, or roughly one third of the global production. However, the market share of US cotton in China tumbled to a range of 11 percent to 13 percent in the past year, from 44 percent to 45 percent during the two years leading up to the trade tensions.
Given the unparalleled magnitude of China's cotton demand, potential gains in other markets by no means would offset a decline in total exports of US cotton, if a trade deal between the world's two largest economies remains far down the road.